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P e r f o r m s w e l l …
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) declared its Q4FY11 results with revenues
of | 45272 crore, EBITDA of | 1664.6 crore and PAT of | 935.2 crore. The
profitability was above our estimates mainly on account of lower net
under-recoveries and higher refining margins. The downstream
companies shared lower net subsidy burden of 8.8% in FY11 against
12.2% in FY10, which got reflected in the current quarterly results. Higher
inventory gain of | 292 crore (US$1.6 per barrel) increased the refining
margins to US$6.9 per barrel in Q4FY11. We have increased our Brent
crude oil prices estimates to US$100 per barrel, going forward vs. our
earlier estimate of US$85 per barrel. We have also assumed net underrecoveries for downstream companies at 8.8% in FY12E and FY13E. This
would increase our EPS estimates to | 50.8 and | 53.5 in FY12E and
FY13E, respectively. We recommend a HOLD rating on the stock with a
price target of | 640.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
The crude oil throughput declined 1.9% YoY from 5.7 MMT in
Q4FY10 to 5.6 MMT in Q4FY11. The gross refining margins (GRMs)
increased from US$3.7 per barrel in Q4FY10 to US$6.9 per barrel in
Q4FY11 on account of inventory gain of | 292 crore (US$1.6 per
barrel). The total market sales increased 6.3% YoY from 7.3 MMT in
Q4FY10 to 7.8 MMT in Q4FY11. Lower net subsidy burden of 8.8%
in FY11 against 12.2% in FY10 for downstream companies led to
over-recoveries of | 741.7 crore in Q4FY11.
V a l u a t i o n
BPCL is trading at 12.1x FY12E and 11.4x FY13E EPS of | 50.8 and | 53.5,
respectively. We recommend the stock with a HOLD rating and a price
target of | 640 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: | 589 per
share and P/E multiple: | 691 per share).
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
P e r f o r m s w e l l …
Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL) declared its Q4FY11 results with revenues
of | 45272 crore, EBITDA of | 1664.6 crore and PAT of | 935.2 crore. The
profitability was above our estimates mainly on account of lower net
under-recoveries and higher refining margins. The downstream
companies shared lower net subsidy burden of 8.8% in FY11 against
12.2% in FY10, which got reflected in the current quarterly results. Higher
inventory gain of | 292 crore (US$1.6 per barrel) increased the refining
margins to US$6.9 per barrel in Q4FY11. We have increased our Brent
crude oil prices estimates to US$100 per barrel, going forward vs. our
earlier estimate of US$85 per barrel. We have also assumed net underrecoveries for downstream companies at 8.8% in FY12E and FY13E. This
would increase our EPS estimates to | 50.8 and | 53.5 in FY12E and
FY13E, respectively. We recommend a HOLD rating on the stock with a
price target of | 640.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
The crude oil throughput declined 1.9% YoY from 5.7 MMT in
Q4FY10 to 5.6 MMT in Q4FY11. The gross refining margins (GRMs)
increased from US$3.7 per barrel in Q4FY10 to US$6.9 per barrel in
Q4FY11 on account of inventory gain of | 292 crore (US$1.6 per
barrel). The total market sales increased 6.3% YoY from 7.3 MMT in
Q4FY10 to 7.8 MMT in Q4FY11. Lower net subsidy burden of 8.8%
in FY11 against 12.2% in FY10 for downstream companies led to
over-recoveries of | 741.7 crore in Q4FY11.
V a l u a t i o n
BPCL is trading at 12.1x FY12E and 11.4x FY13E EPS of | 50.8 and | 53.5,
respectively. We recommend the stock with a HOLD rating and a price
target of | 640 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: | 589 per
share and P/E multiple: | 691 per share).
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