02 May 2011

India Weekly Kickstart Portfolio Strategy Research :: Goldman Sachs

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India Weekly Kickstart
Portfolio Strategy Research
NIFTY loses 2.3% wow on Banks’ earnings; investors await RBI policy meeting on May 3
Pharma (CNXPHRM Index) gained 1.6%, while CNXBANK Index fell 3.5% last week.  
 week, but have bought US$1.02bn ytd; domestic MFs have bought US$0.3bn ytd. FIIs sold US$290mn last 
Silver (+5.0%), gold (+1.8%), crude (+1.2%) and nat. gas (+2.3%) rose further, leading commodities up 1.1% last week. 
reported below expectations. bove expectations and 40%  4QFY11 earnings are mixed so far; 38% cos. reported a 
Overview
Indian equity markets fell for five consecutive
trading days and ended the week down more than
2%. The decline has been broad-based, led by
ucture (-3.7%). NIFTY fell  Banks (-3.5%) and Infrastr
ng 9.3% in March. The RBI  1.4% in April after gaini
released a discussion paper wherein it argued for
 This is viewed as  savings rate deregulation.
negative for banks in the near term by our India
Banks team. At its May 3 policy meeting, GS Global
ECS Research expects the RBI to raise rates by
50bp vs. market expectations of a 25 bp hike.
NIFTY price performance
NIFTY fell 2.3% last week, and is down 6.3% ytd
 GS Global ECS Research.  , Datastream , Source: NSE
Foreign and domestic flows
Foreigners sold US$290mn, while domestic MFs
bought US$20mn last week as of April 27, 2011.
Earnings sentiment and relative valuation
MSCI India Cons. Disc had the strongest EPS
sentiment (+6.8%) last week. India’s valuation
premium relative to MXAPJ is currently 20%.
Commodities
MCX Silver surged another 5% last week, leading
the MCX Commodity Index higher by 1.1%.
Earnings results and events
FY11 results: PNB (May 4), Bharti and Cipla (May
5). Macro events: Trade, yoy (May 2). RBI policy
meeting (May 03).
Focus
Cross-class comparison

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