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02 May 2011

Corporation Bank 4Q11 Results: Mixed Bag with Relatively Lower Headline Numbers:: Citi

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Corporation Bank (CRBK.BO)
 4Q11 Results: Mixed Bag with Relatively Lower Headline Numbers
 
 4Q11 profits up a modest 11%, weaker than estimates — Corp bank's 4Q11 profits
were up a modest 11%yoy (14% below our estimates). Net interest margins were down
10bps qoq and were a key drag on earnings along with additional pension-related
costs. There were positives as well – fee income grew 57%yoy and asset quality
showed meaningful improvement with absolute NPLs down 14%QoQ. Overall, it was a
mixed quarter with lower NIMs and higher costs offset by aggressive loan growth,
robust fee growth and healthy asset quality.

 P&L: Weaker margins, better fees and high credit costs — Key Highlights – a)
NIMs compression by 10bps QoQ (adjusting for accounting changes), now at 250bps,
while management guides to 3% NIMs in FY12, we believe this could be challenging
especially given its weaker deposit franchise; b) Fee income growth was robust (57%
yoy), partly supported by strong recoveries in 4Q11; c) Operating expenses contained
one-offs from pension liabilities (~Rs1.3bn) adjusting for which the increase is quite
stable at 2%yoy. We believe this should normalize at lower levels with the recurring
pension cost of Rs275mn/quarter; and d)  Credit costs remained elevated at 1.3%
(annualized for 4Q11), recent aggressive loan growth can keep this under pressure.
 Balance sheet: Mixed bag  — a) Loan growth was aggressive at 21%QoQ and
37%YoY, mainly coming from infrastructure and corporate segments. Management has
guided to a 25%yoy loan growth for FY12, with focus on SME and retail segments. We
believe this is aggressive and could strain asset quality; b) Deposit mix remains
modest, though some traction was seen with CASA Ratio increasing from 24% to 26%
QoQ - management targets 30% CASA in FY12; C) NPLs improved significantly, partly
on the back of recoveries from slippages in 3Q, management expects further
recoveries.
 Relatively weaker on funding — Corp Bank has strong profitability, a clean balance
sheet and a low operating cost structure relative to peers. However, its modest funding
franchise remains its prime weakness and could cause pain over the next few quarters.
Maintain Hold.

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