Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
• No clear trends as monthly breakup not available: Implied
Feb/March points to strong consumption recovery, which is not
backed up by bottom-up company data: The JPC data is available on
a YTD basis for Feb and March and not on a monthly basis, which
makes granular analysis difficult. Headline steel consumption for
FY11 stood at 9.9% as per JPC data, something which is not
corroborated by the major steel companies’ steel sales volumes over
the July-March period. While headline March 2011 consumption
implies y/y growth of 8.5%, this is on the back of a revised March-10
base. While Feb-11 monthly data is not available, taking the YTD
Feb-YTD Jan, Feb-11 steel consumption growth of 26% y/y does not
gel with companies reporting weak volume trends. Importantly, if
demand had been that strong, steel prices should not have been at a
discount to imported prices and neither would companies be required to
give discounts over the last two weeks on HRC.
• Steel production trends: FY11 reported finished steel production
increased by 8.8% to 65.9MT and implied Feb/March steel production
increased by 12.2%/6.9% y/y. The production data mis-match is not as
much as consumption.
• Steel imports for FY11 down 9% y/y: Of the four data sets reported by
JPC (production, consumption, imports and exports), imports and exports
data, in our view, reflects the on the ground situation more closely.
Feb/March steel imports were down sharply y/y though on a m/m basis
imports did pick up in March (+24%) though on an absolute basis we
think they still remain reasonable.
• Steel exports for FY11 up 3% y/y: Feb/March steel exports were
mixed, with Feb exports down y/y, but March exports up y/y (+9%),
though on a m/m basis they were broadly flat, implying the March
growth was more driven by a weaker base.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
• No clear trends as monthly breakup not available: Implied
Feb/March points to strong consumption recovery, which is not
backed up by bottom-up company data: The JPC data is available on
a YTD basis for Feb and March and not on a monthly basis, which
makes granular analysis difficult. Headline steel consumption for
FY11 stood at 9.9% as per JPC data, something which is not
corroborated by the major steel companies’ steel sales volumes over
the July-March period. While headline March 2011 consumption
implies y/y growth of 8.5%, this is on the back of a revised March-10
base. While Feb-11 monthly data is not available, taking the YTD
Feb-YTD Jan, Feb-11 steel consumption growth of 26% y/y does not
gel with companies reporting weak volume trends. Importantly, if
demand had been that strong, steel prices should not have been at a
discount to imported prices and neither would companies be required to
give discounts over the last two weeks on HRC.
• Steel production trends: FY11 reported finished steel production
increased by 8.8% to 65.9MT and implied Feb/March steel production
increased by 12.2%/6.9% y/y. The production data mis-match is not as
much as consumption.
• Steel imports for FY11 down 9% y/y: Of the four data sets reported by
JPC (production, consumption, imports and exports), imports and exports
data, in our view, reflects the on the ground situation more closely.
Feb/March steel imports were down sharply y/y though on a m/m basis
imports did pick up in March (+24%) though on an absolute basis we
think they still remain reasonable.
• Steel exports for FY11 up 3% y/y: Feb/March steel exports were
mixed, with Feb exports down y/y, but March exports up y/y (+9%),
though on a m/m basis they were broadly flat, implying the March
growth was more driven by a weaker base.
No comments:
Post a Comment