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13 April 2011

Correction likely to unfold: Money Times

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The markets remained range bound during the course of the week. The volumes recorded remained low amid the robust breadth indicating buying support concentrated mainly in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. Selling pressure and profit booking was witnessed in frontline stocks. Incidentally, FIIs remained net buyers in the cash as well as the derivatives segment. However, occasional bouts of selling by FIIs was seen in the derivatives segment. Mutual Funds were seen booking profits at higher levels and remained net sellers during the course of the week. Crude oil prices continued their northward journey as Brent Crude neared the $124 level as political turmoil in the Middle East showed no signs of abating.
Technically, the benchmark indices BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty are placed below and above their respective 200-day SMA. The MACD, RSI and KST are placed in the positive and above their respective averages on the daily chart, which is a positive sign and would help in garnering buying support at lower levels. The +DI line is placed above the 30 level but was seen struggling to move higher. Moreover, the ADX line and -DI line continue to have started moving upwards. However, a few nagging negatives continue to hold good and are likely to play spoilsport and are likely to cap the upside. The Stochastic is placed below its average on the daily charts and is placed in the overbought zone on weekly charts. Moreover, the RSI has breached its average and is also placed in the overbought zone on daily charts, which would result in regular bouts of profit booking and selling pressure. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA continues to trade below the 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, which displays short-term weakness for the markets. Moreover, the Nifty’s 100-day SMA has breached the 200-day SMA, which would result in increased selling pressure. All these would weigh negatively on the market sentiment, which remains cautious.

The markets are poised crucially and in all likelihood a correction is likely to unfold on the bourses. Selling pressure and profit booking is likely to be witnessed amidst intermediate bouts of volatility. Volumes are likely to remain low due to the truncated trading week. In the meanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from the forthcoming earnings season, global markets and crude prices

Any negative cue is likely to lead to increased selling pressure on the bourses. Stock specific action would be witnessed.
Technically, on the upside the Sensex faces resistance at the 20184, 20355 and 20917 levels but seeks support at the 18985, 18446 and 17839 levels. The support levels for the Nifty are placed at 5750, 5690, 5600 and 5408 levels but it The Nifty faces resistance at the 5863, 6000 and 6158 levels.
Investors should abstain from taking long positions.

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