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07 April 2011

Bharat Heavy Electricals – Strong performance:: RBS

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BHEL reported strong provisional numbers for FY11, with adjusted revenues up 20% yoy at
Rs410bn and adjusted PAT up 33% at Rs57.5bn. It also outperformed its order inflow
guidance for FY11 at Rs605bn and this momentum is likely to sustain in FY12. Overall, a
strong set of numbers and we maintain our Buy rating.



Company delivers on order inflow; Set to maintain inflow momentum in FY12
􀀟 BHEL had a strong FY11 in terms of order inflows, reporting inflows of Rs605bn and the
company expects the momentum to continue in FY12, where the Chairman has guided
for a c10% increase to current year inflows.
􀀟 The company at the beginning of the year guided for an order inflow of Rs590bn, which
they maintained even at the end of the nine month results.
􀀟 Given the overall slowdown in the project environment and NTPC's bulk tender getting
delayed, there was skepticism during the quarter in terms of BHEL's ability to deliver on
its inflow guidance.
􀀟 The company had done order inflow of Rs365bn till the end of nine months and which
means Rs240bn of inflows in 4Q11, ie 5% growth on a yoy basis.
FY11 and 4Q FY11 PAT grows at 33% yoy
􀀟 The company has clocked in FY11 revenues of Rs434bn and a PAT of Rs60.2bn. This
translates into a yoy increase of 27% sales and 40% profits.
􀀟 If one were to adjust for the change in accounting for warranty recognition, the company
has seen a revenue of Rs410bn and PAT of Rs57.5bn, up 20% and 33%, respectively.
􀀟 The adjusted FY11 PAT number is in line with RBS estimate of Rs57.8bn. In terms of
EPS, the FY11 adjusted EPS is Rs117.3 vs RBS estimate of Rs118.
􀀟 In terms of 4Q11, this means adjusted revenues of Rs162bn and PAT of Rs25.3bn, yoy
growth of 15% and 33%, respectively.


Overall a strong set of numbers. We remain positive on BHEL
􀀟 We view the results very positively as the company managed order inflows in FY11 despite
delays to key projects like NTPC's bulk tender.
􀀟 With the boiler part of bulk tender of 11x660MW as well as 9x800MW from NTPC, along with
more state JV projects likely to happen in FY12, we expect the strong inflow trend to continue.
􀀟 While BHEL is likely to get part of bulk tender orders, pricing will be keenly watched as
competition goes up with other players like L&T-Mitsubishi, BGR Hitachi, etc in the fray.
􀀟 BHEL has been competitive in recent orders, emerging the lowest bidder against BGR-Hitachi
for the Rajasthan project of two plants of 2 x 660MW each
􀀟 We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Stock trades at ~16xFY12F EPS of
Rs136.5


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