Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
India Media Sector
World Cup impact on India media sector
World Cup—what does GRP data from TAM suggest?
The cricket matches played by team India (on weekends) had high TVR ratings,
while other matches did not attract significant viewership. A comparison of weekly
GRPs in 2011 during the ICC Cricket World Cup and prior to the event suggests
that it has impacted the viewership of Star Plus and Sony more than that of Zee TV
and Colors. Key takeaways from YTD GRP trend: 1) Star Plus has been losing
GRPs, but has retained a leadership position; 2) Colors’ GRPs have been slightly
volatile during 2011 and declined from an average 263 prior to the World Cup to
246 during the tournament; 3) Zee TV’s GRPs have been consistent, average GRPs
have declined by 10 during the World Cup.
Minimal impact on February 2011 ad volumes; card rates declined 5-6%
Hindi GECs continued to operate at near full inventory levels in February 2011,
implying that the World Cup has not had a significant impact on advertising
volumes. Colors’ advertising volumes increased 0.2% MoM in February, while
Zee TV’s advertising volumes declined 2.4%. The implied card rate has declined
by 5-6% for both channels. While card rates do not give a correct picture of the
actual realisations, they can give a sense of the direction of changes in actual ad
rates.
Dish TV likely to benefit the most from World Cup
We believe Dish TV benefits the most as DTH subs addition momentum is likely
to pick up during the World Cup. We believe it is likely to have a marginally
negative impact on Zee and IBN18 as their ad yields could come under some
pressure in 4Q. We estimate a potential marginal shift in ad volumes or further
pressure on yields in March 2011 if team India reaches the World Cup finals. We
continue to remain positive on Zee and IBN18 as they are a play on growing
subscription revenues led by digitisation.
There is a high probability that team India will reach the quarter finals unless it
loses to team West Indies by a wide margin and Team Bangladesh wins against
team South Africa or Team England wins against team West Indies by a wide
margin. The table below provides the match schedule for the remaining matches.
Table 7: World Cup schedule
Date Day Match
16-Mar-11 Wednesday Australia vs. Canada
17-Mar-11 Thursday England vs. West Indies
18-Mar-11 Friday Ireland vs. Netherlands
18-Mar-11 Friday New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka
19-Mar-11 Saturday Bangladesh vs. South Africa
19-Mar-11 Saturday Australia vs. Pakistan
20-Mar-11 Sunday Kenya vs. Zimbabwe
20-Mar-11 Sunday India vs. West Indies
Source: ESPN Star Sports
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
India Media Sector
World Cup impact on India media sector
World Cup—what does GRP data from TAM suggest?
The cricket matches played by team India (on weekends) had high TVR ratings,
while other matches did not attract significant viewership. A comparison of weekly
GRPs in 2011 during the ICC Cricket World Cup and prior to the event suggests
that it has impacted the viewership of Star Plus and Sony more than that of Zee TV
and Colors. Key takeaways from YTD GRP trend: 1) Star Plus has been losing
GRPs, but has retained a leadership position; 2) Colors’ GRPs have been slightly
volatile during 2011 and declined from an average 263 prior to the World Cup to
246 during the tournament; 3) Zee TV’s GRPs have been consistent, average GRPs
have declined by 10 during the World Cup.
Minimal impact on February 2011 ad volumes; card rates declined 5-6%
Hindi GECs continued to operate at near full inventory levels in February 2011,
implying that the World Cup has not had a significant impact on advertising
volumes. Colors’ advertising volumes increased 0.2% MoM in February, while
Zee TV’s advertising volumes declined 2.4%. The implied card rate has declined
by 5-6% for both channels. While card rates do not give a correct picture of the
actual realisations, they can give a sense of the direction of changes in actual ad
rates.
Dish TV likely to benefit the most from World Cup
We believe Dish TV benefits the most as DTH subs addition momentum is likely
to pick up during the World Cup. We believe it is likely to have a marginally
negative impact on Zee and IBN18 as their ad yields could come under some
pressure in 4Q. We estimate a potential marginal shift in ad volumes or further
pressure on yields in March 2011 if team India reaches the World Cup finals. We
continue to remain positive on Zee and IBN18 as they are a play on growing
subscription revenues led by digitisation.
There is a high probability that team India will reach the quarter finals unless it
loses to team West Indies by a wide margin and Team Bangladesh wins against
team South Africa or Team England wins against team West Indies by a wide
margin. The table below provides the match schedule for the remaining matches.
Table 7: World Cup schedule
Date Day Match
16-Mar-11 Wednesday Australia vs. Canada
17-Mar-11 Thursday England vs. West Indies
18-Mar-11 Friday Ireland vs. Netherlands
18-Mar-11 Friday New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka
19-Mar-11 Saturday Bangladesh vs. South Africa
19-Mar-11 Saturday Australia vs. Pakistan
20-Mar-11 Sunday Kenya vs. Zimbabwe
20-Mar-11 Sunday India vs. West Indies
Source: ESPN Star Sports
No comments:
Post a Comment