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Result Previews – 3QFY2011
Cairn India
For 3QFY2011, we expect CIL to report strong top-line growth of 509.3% yoy to `3,019cr.
Growth is largely on account of higher crude oil production, following the ramp-up of
production at the Mangala field coupled with higher oil prices, although stronger INR/USD
will offset gains to a certain extent. However, on a qoq basis, production from MBA fields is
likely to remain stagnant due to approvals awaited from JV partners and management
committee for additional production. Operating margin during the quarter is likely to
decrease by 109bp yoy, whereas operating profit during the quarter is expected to register
growth of 500% to `2,083cr (`347cr). On the bottom-line front, we expect the company to
register growth of 486.3% yoy to `1,706cr (`291cr). We have a Neutral rating on the stock.
GSPL
GSPL is likely to announce its 3QFY2011 results. The company is likely to report a 19% yoy
decline in the bottom line to `93.5cr (`115.4cr) despite marginally higher volumes, as we
expect tariff adjustment, which is happening over the last few quarters, to adversely impact
profitability. We expect volumes to increase by 2.5% yoy to 36mmscmd (35.1mmscmd)
during the quarter, whereas realisations are expected to decrease by 6.7% yoy to
`775/’000scm (`831/’000scm). With this, the top line is expected to decline by 4.4% yoy to
`257cr (`268cr). OPM is expected to decline by 181bp yoy to 92.4% (94.3%) and operating
profit is expected to decline by 6.2% yoy to `237cr (`253cr). We maintain our Buy rating on
GSPL with a Target Price of `128.
BGR Energy Systems
BGR is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2011 results. The top line is expected to grow by 90% yoy
to `1,207cr. On the operating front, we expect the company to register a 24.5bp yoy margin
contraction to around 11%. Net profit is expected to increase significantly by 85.4% yoy to `78cr.
The stock is currently trading at 12.3x FY2011E and 9.9x FY2012E earnings. We will revisit
our estimates post the conference call with the management. Currently, we maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a Target Price of `720.
CESC
CESC is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect CESC to register 46.6% yoy
growth in its standalone top line to `1,168cr, aided by higher volumes due to the
commissioning of the 250MW Budge-Budge plant. The company's OPM is expected to
expand by 503bp yoy to 28.6%. We expect CESC to record 64% yoy growth in net profit to
`168cr. We maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `474.
India Cements
India Cements is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s top line
to decline by 7.3% yoy to `812cr. The estimated decline in the top line is on account of a
steep fall in dispatches. The company’s operating margin is expected to decline by 707bp
yoy to 7.6% primarily on account of increased input costs. The company is expected to post
net loss of `8cr. We maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `139.
Madras Cements
Madras Cements is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s top
line to decline by 13.3% yoy to `529cr on account of a steep fall in dispatches. The
operating margin is expected to increase by 248bp yoy to 20.7% on account of the low base
effect. The company is expected to post net profit of `19cr (up 17.3% yoy). We maintain our
Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of `141.
Kesoram Industries
Kesoram Industries is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s
top line to increase by 10.6% yoy to `1,334cr due to increased tyre capacity. The operating
margin is expected to decline by 467bp yoy to 6.5% on account of higher input costs. The
company is expected to post net loss of `27cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with
a Target Price of `304.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Result Previews – 3QFY2011
Cairn India
For 3QFY2011, we expect CIL to report strong top-line growth of 509.3% yoy to `3,019cr.
Growth is largely on account of higher crude oil production, following the ramp-up of
production at the Mangala field coupled with higher oil prices, although stronger INR/USD
will offset gains to a certain extent. However, on a qoq basis, production from MBA fields is
likely to remain stagnant due to approvals awaited from JV partners and management
committee for additional production. Operating margin during the quarter is likely to
decrease by 109bp yoy, whereas operating profit during the quarter is expected to register
growth of 500% to `2,083cr (`347cr). On the bottom-line front, we expect the company to
register growth of 486.3% yoy to `1,706cr (`291cr). We have a Neutral rating on the stock.
GSPL
GSPL is likely to announce its 3QFY2011 results. The company is likely to report a 19% yoy
decline in the bottom line to `93.5cr (`115.4cr) despite marginally higher volumes, as we
expect tariff adjustment, which is happening over the last few quarters, to adversely impact
profitability. We expect volumes to increase by 2.5% yoy to 36mmscmd (35.1mmscmd)
during the quarter, whereas realisations are expected to decrease by 6.7% yoy to
`775/’000scm (`831/’000scm). With this, the top line is expected to decline by 4.4% yoy to
`257cr (`268cr). OPM is expected to decline by 181bp yoy to 92.4% (94.3%) and operating
profit is expected to decline by 6.2% yoy to `237cr (`253cr). We maintain our Buy rating on
GSPL with a Target Price of `128.
BGR Energy Systems
BGR is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2011 results. The top line is expected to grow by 90% yoy
to `1,207cr. On the operating front, we expect the company to register a 24.5bp yoy margin
contraction to around 11%. Net profit is expected to increase significantly by 85.4% yoy to `78cr.
The stock is currently trading at 12.3x FY2011E and 9.9x FY2012E earnings. We will revisit
our estimates post the conference call with the management. Currently, we maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a Target Price of `720.
CESC
CESC is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect CESC to register 46.6% yoy
growth in its standalone top line to `1,168cr, aided by higher volumes due to the
commissioning of the 250MW Budge-Budge plant. The company's OPM is expected to
expand by 503bp yoy to 28.6%. We expect CESC to record 64% yoy growth in net profit to
`168cr. We maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `474.
India Cements
India Cements is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s top line
to decline by 7.3% yoy to `812cr. The estimated decline in the top line is on account of a
steep fall in dispatches. The company’s operating margin is expected to decline by 707bp
yoy to 7.6% primarily on account of increased input costs. The company is expected to post
net loss of `8cr. We maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `139.
Madras Cements
Madras Cements is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s top
line to decline by 13.3% yoy to `529cr on account of a steep fall in dispatches. The
operating margin is expected to increase by 248bp yoy to 20.7% on account of the low base
effect. The company is expected to post net profit of `19cr (up 17.3% yoy). We maintain our
Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of `141.
Kesoram Industries
Kesoram Industries is slated to announce its 3QFY2011 results. We expect the company’s
top line to increase by 10.6% yoy to `1,334cr due to increased tyre capacity. The operating
margin is expected to decline by 467bp yoy to 6.5% on account of higher input costs. The
company is expected to post net loss of `27cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with
a Target Price of `304.
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