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08 February 2011

Morgan Stanley Research: LANCO Infratech F3Q11: Disappointing Results

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LANCO Infratech Ltd
F3Q11: Disappointing
Results
Quick Comment – Impact on our views: Lanco
reported F3Q11 consolidated revenue of Rs 15.6 bn
(down 3% YoY), EBITDA of Rs 4.8 bn (up 61% YoY),
and adjusted profits of Rs 1.1 bn (up 17% YoY).
Reported profits were at Rs 1.6 bn (up 54% YoY). This
compares with our revenue estimate of Rs21.4 bn,
EBITDA estimate of Rs 6.3 bn, and profit estimate of Rs
2 bn. The key reasons for lower EBITDA were lower
merchant realization of Rs 3.8/unit and lower power
volumes.
In the quarter the company changed the depreciation
policy back to straight line method from the written down
value method and hence our estimates are not
comparable with reported numbers. However, under
similar accounting practices, the difference between our
estimate and adjusted profit would be higher.
The total consolidated net worth of the company stood
at Rs 45.3 bn at the end of December 2010. The
consolidated loan position was at Rs 187.5 bn (including
associate company loans), whereas the company had
cash and cash equivalents of Rs 12 bn at the end of
December 2010.
Implications: the operational performance in 9MF2011
has been weak due to lower merchant realizations,
delays in plant commissioning and tepid performance of
the construction business. As a result we believe there
could be about 45-50% downside to our current F2011
EBITDA estimates. We will likely revisit our model after
the management call.

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