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17 February 2011

Morgan Stanley: India Strategy: QE Dec-10 Earnings Season Thus Far

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Earnings for this quarter were marked by about 50% of our coverage

companies reporting an earnings growth in excess of 20% YoY even
as 1/4 of the companies reported a decline in earnings YoY.
Revenues grew at 20% YoY for our coverage stocks. •
MS coverage companies (ex-energy) reported earnings growth of  •
15% YoY vs. the expectations of 12% YoY.
Sensex companies reported 26% growth in aggregate earnings –  •
ahead of expectations by 7ppt. Excluding, ONGC and Tata Motors,
Sensex earnings are up 10.5% YoY.
54% of the companies have beaten MS analyst expectations – this  •
beat is the lowest since Mar-09 but higher than the previous cycle
average of 50% (Jun-06 to Dec-07).
Energy and Industrials led the charge on earnings growth, while  •
Telecoms and Utilities lagged.
Six out of the ten sectors saw more earnings beats than misses. •
Financials produced the biggest positive surprises, while Consumer  •
staples and Healthcare produced the most negative surprises.
Margin compression in six out of ten sectors – the exceptions are  •
Industrials, Financials, Energy and Telecoms.
In the broader market, 2,936 companies have reported earnings  •
growth (of 25% YoY) ahead of the narrow market. Earnings growth
is weaker down the cap curve.

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