24 February 2011

Kotak Sec, MEDIA: Budget Expectations

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MEDIA
Current view
q We believe the budget shall be largely neutral for the media sector, with modest
benefits likely for broadcasters/ DTH operators (reduction in SAD for set-top
boxes), and FM radio players (positive noises on speedy implementation of
Phase - 3 of FM radio licensing). Longer-term, we believe pro-consumption policies
of the government shall drive the sector. With consumption gaining
strength and incomes strong, near term prospects of media sector are robust.
q We believe out-performance within the media sector shall primarily be driven by
factors such as bargaining strength in the value chain and extent of monetization
of readership/ viewership assets.
q Inflation, and the resultant decline in real incomes from the impact, remains a
large risk to our sector-performance expectations. Choices made in the budget
to tackle the growth - inflation trade-off shall be critical in determination of
consumption and (by implication) adex growth.
q Perceived advances in the launch of Goods and Service Tax shall be a mild positive,
given demands from the industry for certain taxes, largely entertainment
tax, to be brought under the GST. Entertainment taxes are believed to create
impediments for both DTH and cinema services.

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