08 February 2011

J.P. Morgan: Punj Lloyd: Company reports weak EBITDA, PAT loss in Dec-q

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Punj Lloyd Ltd
Neutral ; PUJL.BO, PUNJ IN
Company reports weak EBITDA, PAT loss in Dec-q


• Extremely weak quarter. Punj Lloyd reported an EBITDA of Rs1B
(down 54% YoY) in Dec-q vs. our expectation of Rs2.1B (consensus
Rs2.2B). Although we were factoring a dip in execution by 20.4% in
Dec-q, reported revenue fell 27.3% YoY to Rs21.2B.  PAT loss of
Rs621mn vs. our est. of Rs491mn profit (consensus Rs542mn profit).
• Segmental update: Pipeline and process segment revenues have dipped
56% and 29% YoY over 9MFY11. Execution is yet to start on the recent
inflows in these segments. Pipeline order backlog for instance has
increased from Rs28.2B to Rs42.2B since Nov-10. Infrastructure
segment constitutes 56% of order book and 31% of revenues. Africa
(primarily Libya) accounts for 35% of outstanding backlog of Rs278B.

• Recent order inflows healthy, but near-term execution to remain
weak: Since the last update on 1st Nov 2010, Punj Lloyd has reported
Rs43.7B of new orders (Rs93B YTD). However, our view is that weak
execution is likely to continue in Mar-q. Based on management's
comment, we believe there is a possibility that Rs59B order bagged by
Sembawang in 1QFY10 in Libya may be removed from the backlog.
According to the company, the balance of ~Rs38B backlog in Libya may
be executed over 5 years.
• Conference call at 15:00 hrs IST today (dial in +91-30650122). We
expect to get more details on the factors leading to the weak 3Q, and the
outlook on execution of the order backlog.

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