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Software & Services: US tech spend likely to improve further [Aniruddha
Bhosale]
Backed by (a) drop in unemployment rates over the past two months, and (b)
strength in the factory sector implying faster restocking of goods and capex
spending, Deutsche Bank's US economists have marked up their CY11 real GDP
forecasts by a full percentage point to 4.3%. Also in light of the two consecutive
months drop in unemployment rates, the year end unemployment rate forecast
stands lowered to 7.8% vs 8.8% before. Thus, the significant increase in the US
GDP forecast bodes well for the technology spending for this geography which
still drives the bulk of the reveneus for the Indian IT services vendors (55‐64%).
India Cements: Production discipline - the key in sluggish demand scenario
[Manish Saxena]
India Cements PAT at INR 215 mn came in ahead of the DB estimate, helped
largely by the c20% QoQ jump in realisations and c5% fall in other expenditure.
Net sales of INR 7.81 bn drove EBITDA of INR 1.29 bn (implying EBITDA/t of INR
581, much below peer Madras Cements, which reported EBITDA/t of cINR 1000)
and Net income of INR 215 mn.
Cairn India: On track for production ramp-up in 2HCY11 [Harshad Katkar]
Cairn India reported net profit of INR20.1bn, 12% above our estimate due to
higher than expected MAT credit entitlements. EBITDA at INR25.4bn (+738% YoY,
+19% QoQ) was 3% above our estimate due to higher Rajasthan sales volumes.
Interest cost was lower than estimated at INR742mn (-42% QoQ) due to reduction
in short-term debt. Mangala crude oil discount to Brent increased in the quarter to
13.5% and the management expects it to remain at the higher end of the guidance
(10-15% discount) in the near term. The company has turned net cash positive
(US$194mn) in the quarter driven by strong operating cash flows (US$455mn).
IOC: 3QFY11 results: Strong refining and pipeline contribution [Harshad
Katkar]
IOC reported a net profit of INR16.3bn (+135% YoY, -69% QoQ) in line with our
estimate of INR16bn. EBITDA at INR29.9bn (+250% YoY, -52% QoQ) was,
however, 6% below our estimate due to lower than expected government
compensation at INR44.4bn against our estimate of INR46.6bn. GRM at
US$6.3/bbl was 74% higher than US$3.6/bbl reported last year. Refinery
throughput at 13.3 MMT (+6% YoY, +10% QoQ) was higher on account of
expanded capacity at Panipat and Haldia refineries. Pipeline EBITDA was also
strong at INR8.6bn (+12% YoY, +12% QoQ) driven by higher volumes. Inventory
and fx gains combined were at INR6.3bn (-5% YoY, +3% QoQ).
Global Economic Perspectives: Asia with Fed Funds at 4% [Peter Hooper]
As forecasts for US real GDP growth (including our own) have moved toward 4%,
especially with core inflation seen as bottoming and expected to move higher, a
fundamental rethink about the scope for holding US monetary policy near its
current extraordinarily accommodative stance for a prolonged period is taking
place.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Software & Services: US tech spend likely to improve further [Aniruddha
Bhosale]
Backed by (a) drop in unemployment rates over the past two months, and (b)
strength in the factory sector implying faster restocking of goods and capex
spending, Deutsche Bank's US economists have marked up their CY11 real GDP
forecasts by a full percentage point to 4.3%. Also in light of the two consecutive
months drop in unemployment rates, the year end unemployment rate forecast
stands lowered to 7.8% vs 8.8% before. Thus, the significant increase in the US
GDP forecast bodes well for the technology spending for this geography which
still drives the bulk of the reveneus for the Indian IT services vendors (55‐64%).
India Cements: Production discipline - the key in sluggish demand scenario
[Manish Saxena]
India Cements PAT at INR 215 mn came in ahead of the DB estimate, helped
largely by the c20% QoQ jump in realisations and c5% fall in other expenditure.
Net sales of INR 7.81 bn drove EBITDA of INR 1.29 bn (implying EBITDA/t of INR
581, much below peer Madras Cements, which reported EBITDA/t of cINR 1000)
and Net income of INR 215 mn.
Cairn India: On track for production ramp-up in 2HCY11 [Harshad Katkar]
Cairn India reported net profit of INR20.1bn, 12% above our estimate due to
higher than expected MAT credit entitlements. EBITDA at INR25.4bn (+738% YoY,
+19% QoQ) was 3% above our estimate due to higher Rajasthan sales volumes.
Interest cost was lower than estimated at INR742mn (-42% QoQ) due to reduction
in short-term debt. Mangala crude oil discount to Brent increased in the quarter to
13.5% and the management expects it to remain at the higher end of the guidance
(10-15% discount) in the near term. The company has turned net cash positive
(US$194mn) in the quarter driven by strong operating cash flows (US$455mn).
IOC: 3QFY11 results: Strong refining and pipeline contribution [Harshad
Katkar]
IOC reported a net profit of INR16.3bn (+135% YoY, -69% QoQ) in line with our
estimate of INR16bn. EBITDA at INR29.9bn (+250% YoY, -52% QoQ) was,
however, 6% below our estimate due to lower than expected government
compensation at INR44.4bn against our estimate of INR46.6bn. GRM at
US$6.3/bbl was 74% higher than US$3.6/bbl reported last year. Refinery
throughput at 13.3 MMT (+6% YoY, +10% QoQ) was higher on account of
expanded capacity at Panipat and Haldia refineries. Pipeline EBITDA was also
strong at INR8.6bn (+12% YoY, +12% QoQ) driven by higher volumes. Inventory
and fx gains combined were at INR6.3bn (-5% YoY, +3% QoQ).
Global Economic Perspectives: Asia with Fed Funds at 4% [Peter Hooper]
As forecasts for US real GDP growth (including our own) have moved toward 4%,
especially with core inflation seen as bottoming and expected to move higher, a
fundamental rethink about the scope for holding US monetary policy near its
current extraordinarily accommodative stance for a prolonged period is taking
place.
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