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Foreign investor capitulation?
Figure 1: Net foreign selling in Emerging Asia (ex. China, ex. Malaysia)
Net foreign selling (US$ mn)
May-04 -2,444
Mar/ Apr 05 -4,530
Oct-05 -4,351
May-Jul 06 -14,451
Mar-07 -3,442
Feb-10 -2,598
May-10 -13,621
Average -6,491
Current -2,875
Source: Various stock exchanges, Credit Suisse estimates
■ MXASJ down almost 7% from high, time to buy? With MXASJ (MSCI
Asia ex. Japan) down 7% from its high of 580 to 540 currently, a key
question is whether it is time to buy. Our Asian 6 factor valuation indicator
has moved from 1% overvalued in December 2010 to around 6%
undervalued. So, we are not yet at our “Buy” signal. The next factor we look
at is whether there has been foreign investor capitulation. Significantly,
yesterday alone was associated with US$1.68 bn of net foreign selling, and
so far in February we have seen net foreign selling of US$2.88 bn in
Emerging Asia ex. China, ex. Malaysia.
■ Average net foreign selling in prior non-recession corrections was
US$6.5bn. Figure 1 highlights that net foreign selling in the current episode
of US$2.88 bn is still below the average net foreign selling of US$6.5 bn
during the last seven non-recession corrections.
■ But foreign investor capitulation is most evident in Thailand. While
Thailand was associated with net foreign buying of US$1.9 bn in 2010, so far
more than half of this inflow has been reversed with net foreign selling of
US$1.16bn year-to-date. In contrast, net foreign selling in India at
US$1.34 bn appears small in the context of net foreign buying of
US$29.4 bn in 2010. Figure 2 also highlights that on a rolling 12-month basis,
Korea has received 28% of all flows versus its MSCI weighting of 36%, and
Taiwan has received 23% of all flows versus its MSCI weighting of 30%.
India continues to be the most crowded trade with 43% of all flows versus an
MSCI weighting of just 17%.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Foreign investor capitulation?
Figure 1: Net foreign selling in Emerging Asia (ex. China, ex. Malaysia)
Net foreign selling (US$ mn)
May-04 -2,444
Mar/ Apr 05 -4,530
Oct-05 -4,351
May-Jul 06 -14,451
Mar-07 -3,442
Feb-10 -2,598
May-10 -13,621
Average -6,491
Current -2,875
Source: Various stock exchanges, Credit Suisse estimates
■ MXASJ down almost 7% from high, time to buy? With MXASJ (MSCI
Asia ex. Japan) down 7% from its high of 580 to 540 currently, a key
question is whether it is time to buy. Our Asian 6 factor valuation indicator
has moved from 1% overvalued in December 2010 to around 6%
undervalued. So, we are not yet at our “Buy” signal. The next factor we look
at is whether there has been foreign investor capitulation. Significantly,
yesterday alone was associated with US$1.68 bn of net foreign selling, and
so far in February we have seen net foreign selling of US$2.88 bn in
Emerging Asia ex. China, ex. Malaysia.
■ Average net foreign selling in prior non-recession corrections was
US$6.5bn. Figure 1 highlights that net foreign selling in the current episode
of US$2.88 bn is still below the average net foreign selling of US$6.5 bn
during the last seven non-recession corrections.
■ But foreign investor capitulation is most evident in Thailand. While
Thailand was associated with net foreign buying of US$1.9 bn in 2010, so far
more than half of this inflow has been reversed with net foreign selling of
US$1.16bn year-to-date. In contrast, net foreign selling in India at
US$1.34 bn appears small in the context of net foreign buying of
US$29.4 bn in 2010. Figure 2 also highlights that on a rolling 12-month basis,
Korea has received 28% of all flows versus its MSCI weighting of 36%, and
Taiwan has received 23% of all flows versus its MSCI weighting of 30%.
India continues to be the most crowded trade with 43% of all flows versus an
MSCI weighting of just 17%.
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