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14 February 2011

Accumulate Bharati Shipyard -No orders yet; Target Rs183:: Prabhudas Lilladher

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 Results in line: Bharati Shipyard (BHSL) reported revenues to the tune of
Rs3.45bn, a growth of 8% YoY; however, flat sequentially. Margins were steady
at 18.4%, translating into PAT of Rs232m, down 30% YoY and 21% QoQ. Subsidy
booking during the quarter stood at Rs397m. The company reported a loss of
Rs46m, excluding subsidy.

 Debt position: With the acquisition of Tebma Shipyard this quarter, the debt on
BHSL’s books now stands at Rs30bn, translating into a debt:equity ratio of 3.2:1.
The company has repaid FCCBs to the tune ~Rs3bn during the quarter.
 Unexecuted order book declines: BHSL’s unexecuted order book now stands at
Rs12.4bn, giving it a visibility of only three quarters. As per the management,
orders worth Rs20bn are under negotiation and some of these are expected to
be finalized in the next couple of months.
 Status of rig: The delivery of the rig being built for Great Offshore (GOFF) has
been delayed till October 2011. As per the management, the rig will be launched
at a time just ahead of its deployment. Since, it expects the rig to get contracted
post monsoon, it has delayed its delivery till then.
 Valuations: We are valuing BHSL’s standalone business based on 6x EV/EBITDA
FY12e. From the company’s EV, we are deducting debt of Rs8.3bn, which
reflects its investment in GOFF. The standalone value of BHSL stands at
Rs3.56bn which translates to Rs112/share. Further, we are valuing GOFF at
6xFY12 EV/ EBITDA. BHSL’s 49.7% stake, thereby, stands at Rs10.77bn. Of this,
we deduct the debt of Rs8.3bn taken by BHSL for the acquisition which gives a
value of Rs2.47bn. Post a 10% holding company discount, the value per share
translates to Rs70. We downgrade the stock to ‘Accumulate’ with our revised
SOTP based price target of Rs183.

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