28 January 2011

Rollover Analysis: Market-wide Futures OI (Expiry Day): Market-wide rollover 77%; Nifty rollovers 67%: Edelweiss

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Selling in the select large cap names made the benchmark Nifty index close below
the 200DMA (5620) at 5604. On the last day of expiry, ~77% of the market wide
futures open interest has been shifted to the February expiry. This position is a
tad higher than ~75% seen in the December expiry. The February series will start
with market wide future OI of ~INR 456 bn as against ~INR 500 bn seen at the
start of the January expiry. VWAP selling happened in many frontline counters like
Reliance Industries, IDFC, REC Ltd and HPCL. With short rollers getting
aggressive, the roll cost levels in stock futures shrank to ~55-60 bps. In few of
the stocks it even went down to ~40-45 bps.
Nifty roll cost during the day remained quite volatile. After touching levels of ~8
points intraday, selling pressure on near month futures in the last half hour made
the level to expand to ~18-20 points. Nifty February series would start with an OI
of INR 113 bn (~INR 120 bn in January series) with 67% positions getting rolled
into the next series (~61% was seen in December expiry). In today’s trading
session ~41,360 contracts got added in February series while ~199,620 contracts
expired in January series. Nifty series holds an OI of ~400K contracts (as against
394k contracts the previous expiry)
Focus Sectors
Strong Rollovers: Sugar (90%) and Power (85%)
Weak Rollovers: Banking (78%)
Focus Stocks
Strong Rollovers: KFA (94%), Reliance Infrastructure (92%)
Weak Rollovers: TCS (69%), ITC (63%)


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