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17 January 2011

Macquarie Research:: Fund Flow Tracker- Rotation continuation

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Fund Flow Tracker
Rotation continuation
Local exchange data: North-eastern migration continues
􀂃 Taiwan and Korea continue to attract foreign equity buyers: This week’s
data highlights the crystallizing pattern of rotational buying into Northeast
Asia. In aggregate, the six Asia ex-Japan markets where high-frequency
foreign buying/selling data are available (ie Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand,
Indonesia and the Philippines) recorded net-selling of US$628m, off the
region’s two-month high of a positive US$2.6bn just last week. Taiwan and
Korea, however, are the only two markets to still record positive net-buying.
Taiwan in particular recorded net-buying of US$823m, marking six
consecutive positive weeks now averaging US$710m – four times the 52-
week average of US$177m.

􀂃 India and TIPs net-sold by massive -US$1.8bn: India recorded weekly
foreign net-selling of -US$747m, compared to +US$911m a week ago.
Meanwhile, all three of the TIPs markets suffered sizeable foreign net-selling.
This was led by Indonesia and Thailand, which recorded net-selling
of -US$582m and -US$422m, respectively, vs the week-ago net-buying of
+US$192m and +US$150m. The Philippines saw foreign net-selling
of -US$56m, vs net-positive buying of +US$31m the prior week.
􀂃 Frontier markets net-buying slowdown dragged by Sri Lanka: The three
frontier markets of Vietnam, Pakistan and Sri Lanka recorded US$11.5m for
the week ending January 12, down from US$17.6m the week before. Pakistan
was the largest contributor of net-buying (at US$19m vs US$13.6m a week
before) followed by Vietnam (US$6.3m vs US$7.9 a week before). But netselling
in Sri Lanka worsened WoW to -US$13.7bn from -US$3.85 previously.
Fund subscription data: New cash for Taiwan funds
􀂃 Country-fund subscriptions boost Taiwan, Korea and India managers’
cash… Weekly subscriptions to pan-regional Asia ex-Japan funds slowed
WoW to US$135m, from US$248m a week ago. But subscription to some
single-country funds remained robust, driven primarily by a 156% WoW
increase for Taiwan-focused funds to a six-month high US$192m. Indeed,
Taiwan alone made up over 50% of total single-country-fund subscriptions in
the past week. Korea- and India-dedicated funds also received a WoW pickup
in net subscriptions (to US$90m and US$57m, respectively).
􀂃 …but redemptions hit China funds: China-focused funds, on the other
hand, are the only country-focused funds to record a week of netredemptions.
􀂃 Strong subscriptions across developed Asia: Asia Pacific-benchmarked
funds (which include Japan, Australia and New Zealand in addition to
emerging Asia) recorded a significant WoW pick in net-subscriptions, to
US$134m – vs just US$10m one week before (and 12-month weekly average
of US$30.7m). Japan-dedicated funds also received a strong WoW pick-up in
subscriptions – to US$368m, from US$105m one week ago.
􀂃 GEM focused fund slowed WoW: General Global Emerging Market funds
received US$283m this week, a substantial slowdown from US$1.7bn netsubscription
the week before.

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