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L&T Q3FY11E result estimates
Expect L&T to report strong operational performance in Q3FY11E
Expect revenues of Rs99.0 bn (+22% yoy). On the segmental front expect E&C segment to continue to report strong growth at 20% yoy to Rs83.7 bn. After declining by 5% yoy in Q2FY11, expect E&E to revive with 8% growth to Rs7.8 bn. M&IP segment to post healthy growth at 8% yoy to Rs7.0 bn.
EBITDA at Rs12.3 bn (+22% yoy) with stable EBITDA margins of 12.4%.
Despite strong operational performance, expect lower APAT growth at 16% yoy to Rs7.1 bn - due to lower other income.
Comments on order execution risk, if any, will be watched closely
Rallis India Q3FY11 Results Expectation: Net Sales Rs 2.4 bn, APAT Rs 388 mn
(RALI@IN, MCAP USD 572 mn, CMP Rs 1,349, RECO Buy, TP Rs 1,800)
Rallis India is expected to report their Q3FY11 results today i.e. January 17, 2011.
Despite recent floods and late monsoon in various regions of the country, we do not foresee and significant drop in Q3FY11 revenues, although we expect some spillover of sales from Q3FY11 to Q4FY11. We estimate revenue growth of 18% yoy to Rs 2.4 bn, strong EBITDA margins of 24% (+330 bps yoy) resulting in 37% growth in EBITDA to Rs 585 mn. APAT is likely at Rs 388 mn resulting in AEPS of Rs 20.0.
Axis Bank Q3FY11 result estimates
Axis bank’s NII is expected to grow by 23.6%yoy led by 39.6%yoy growth in advances, albeit NIM’s to contract by 7bps qoq to 3.2%. The downward bias on NIM’s, owing to rise in cost of funds (+23bps qoq), are likely to be offset in part by corresponding hike in base rate/ PLR rate and improvement in CDR (30bps qoq). Moreover higher trading gains in the Q3FY10 (Rs1.7bn) will hurt the overall other income growth for Q3FY11 (9.3%yoy). Key things to watch out 1) Credit costs or provisions -as the bank has significant exposure to the troubled sectors like real estate, Telecom and MFI (10% of Advances).
Inflation rises 90bps to 8.4%; a 25bps uniform rate hike seem inevitable
n Headline inflation for the month of December saw a rise of 90bps to 8.4% from 7.5% last month, marginally above our estimate of 8.2%.
¾ The main driver of this month’s figures remains the sharp increase in primary articles inflation to 16.5% and an 11.2% yoy jump in POL WPI.
¾ However manufacturing inflation has eased marginally by 10bps to 4.5% with core inflation remaining relatively stable at 5.4%.
¾ Sharp increase in the prices of vegetables, fibres and minerals drove the primary articles WPI sharply by 3.5% mom.
¾ Excluding the prices of vegetables, the inflation in food articles would have been dramatically lower at just 0.5% mom
n Inflation for the month of October witnessed an upward revision to 9.1% from 8.9%. This was seen due to a revision in fuel inflation (70bps) to 11% and a revision (40bps) in manufactured products to 5%
n In view of this likely development, the RBI would proceed with its upward rate calibration in their third quarter monetary policy review. Though the RBI will have to take a call on the intensity of calibration it is likely to engage in, with the moderation seen in industrial production, a 25bps uniform increase in the rates seem inevitable.
All figures are in %yoy, unless mentioned otherwise
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