28 January 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) Jan 28, 2011

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  The index opened with a gap up, but was short-lived due the underlying downtrend and selling pressure from previous day. The selling persisted throughout the day breaking below the 200-SDMA and the 5600 mark as well but settled marginally above it. Oscillators continue to point lower with a sell signal. In yesterday’s session the market breadth sharply in favor of declining stocks; and the Nifty 50 stocks A/D ratio was extremely feeble at 1:4. Nifty’s close below the 200-SDMA has triggered a sell signal, however owing to the near oversold conditions, the index is expected to drop down to the 5550 multiple swing support (refer chart) as well as the declining channel support.
§  All sectoral indices closed in the red indicating the broad-based selling. The out of favour Realty sector was worst hit with a drop of ~3.5%, followed by cuts in Pharma shares, and the high beta Banking and Metals stocks. India VIX has closed above the 50-DEMA within a potential bullish head & shoulder pattern that has a target of 31.75. The broader CNX 500, BSE Midcap and BSE Small cap indices have closed below the 200-SDMA indicating a Dow Theory confirmation. Bullish Setups: TTMT, SHRS, BPCL, SESA Bearish Setups: HH, DRRD, CNXBANK, WPRO, IIB, TTSL, UT
§  Precious metals Gold and Silver have dropped substantially from the peaks and trading below 50-DEMAs suggesting a deeper retracement down to the 200-DEMAs. Gold is expected to break below $1300 to test $1265, whereas Silver is likely to decline to the previous swing support of $25. Crude Oil is on course to retrace the upmove after a double top reversal at $92.50 for a measured target of $80.
§  Interesting chart setupsPLNG, SHRS, BPCL HH, WPRO, DRRD

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