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24 January 2011

Ashok Leyland: 3QFY2011 Result Review: Angel Broking

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Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland (ALL) reported weak set of results for 3QFY2011, with a 58.6% yoy decline in
net profit. Though, the reported top line was ahead of our estimates, net profit came in
significantly lower. Net sales grew by strong 22.5% yoy to `2,227cr (`1,817cr) against our
estimates of `2,105cr. Sales growth was led by 14.3% yoy growth in volumes and a ~7.2%
yoy increase in net average realisation. While M&HCV passenger vehicle sales grew by
18.6% yoy, M&HCV goods vehicle sales posted 13.4% yoy growth. Exports registered a
substantial 146.5% yoy growth during the quarter. Volume growth was, however, restricted
due to capacity constraints related to the availability of components for Bharat Stage III
vehicles.
EBITDA margins came in 280bp below our estimates at 7.5%, a decline of 400bp yoy and
383bp qoq. The contraction in margin was on account of a 322bp yoy increase in rawmaterial
cost and a 140bp jump in employee expenses. Employee expenses were higher
owing partly to increased manpower strength. Other expenditure witnessed a 75bp yoy
increase due to expenses incurred for the setting and ramping up of the Pantnagar facility,
increased focus on R&D and the high decibel launch of the new, innovative U-Truck platform
vehicles. As a result, operating profit was down 20.2% yoy. Net profit during the quarter
declined by substantial 58.6% yoy to `43cr (`105cr) as against our estimate of `95cr. The
bottom line was impacted due to higher-than-expected interest expense owing to increased
working capital requirement.
At `59, the stock is trading at 14.7x FY2011E and 11.4x FY2012E earnings. Currently, the
rating is under review. We shall revise our numbers and release a detailed result update post
the earnings conference call with the management.

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