11 December 2010

IPO Grey market premium: Punjab & Sind Bank, MOIL, A2Z, Ravi Kumar Distilleries, Claris, SCI: Dec 11, 2010

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
Listing Date
(Rs.)
(Rs.)




Manganese Ore (MOIL)
375
205 to 215
15-Dec
(+ 5% retail discount)
Claris Life
228
Discount
16-Dec
(lower band)
Shipping Corp FPO
140
Discount
14-Dec
(+ 5% retail discount)
Ravi Kumar Distilleries
56 to 64
 Discount
24-Dec
A2Z Maintenance
400 to 410
 Discount

Punjab & Sind Bank
113 to 120
 30 to 35

(+ 5% retail discount)


MOIL IPO- Application Allotment details are OUT


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Allotment is for ONLY 17 shares at 5% discount to issue price of Rs 375  at RS 356.25/ share

=> Rs 6, 056.25 deducted from ASBA



Punjab and Sind Bank: Feedback from IPO analyst meeting-Macquarie Research

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Punjab and Sind Bank
Feedback from IPO analyst meeting
Event
􀂃 IPO opens on Dec 13th, implied market cap of $560–600m: We attended
the analyst meet of Punjab and Sind Bank – the only unlisted PSU bank in
India. The bank is intending to issue 40m shares with a price band fixed at
Rs113–120 implying a market cap of $560–600m and constituting 18% of
post issue share capital.

Morgan Stanley: India Strategy: What’s Working, What’s Not

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What’s Working, What’s Not






• Key Debate: It has been a strange year. Arguably, we are in the midst of a bull market. Yet, high beta has
underperformed low beta and the market seems to be focused on high quality (measured by ROE). What else has been
working? Is this different from the past and how should portfolios respond?

Stocks which look interesting post the correction:: Edelweiss

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After hitting its all time highs in November, the markets have corrected by almost 8%. Apart from issues on the global front such as renewed concerns regarding sovereign risk in Europe and monetary tightening in China, domestic issues such as speculation of stock rigging activities in certain scrips and corruption charges on specific companies have also weighed heavily on the markets. Mid caps and Small caps have borne the brunt of this correction and are down by almost 20%-25% from their November highs.

INDIAN UTILITIES: Generation capacity up 6.3% YoY:: Motilal Oswal

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INDIAN UTILITIES: Generation capacity up 6.3% YoY in
November 2010, all-India generation up 5.2% YoY, ST
prices increase

November 2010 all-India generation was up 5.2% YoY, driven by 63% YoY growth in
nuclear power generation and 10% YoY growth in hydropower generation (better than
normal monsoons at 102% of long-term period average). Thermal power, which contributes
84% of total generation, was up 3% YoY. Generation capacity has increased by 6.3%
YoY during the month.

IPO note Punjab & Sind Bank by IIFL

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Punjab & Sind Bank

Punjab & Sind Bank (PSB), with 926 branches is
predominantly present in North and Central India. Its key
strengths are: a) amongst the lowest NPAs in the PSU space
(GNPA <1%), b) adequate capital (CAR at 13%), c) strong
GoI holding (82% post dilution) and d) healthy returns ratio
(avg RoE/RoA at 22%/1.0%). The geographical
concentration (~78% of loans and deposits both) in North
India including Punjab however has capped its loan-deposit
ratio. With 9% YTD growth in its loan book, the bank is
focusing on increasing the share of Retail and MSME
portfolios. The capital restructuring done in late 2008 has
enhanced book value of the bank to Rs111, translating into a
valuation of 1.0x-1.1x trailing P/BV at the IPO price band.

ICICI Sec: Pharma Monthly: December 2010

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Pharma Monthly


Regulatory approvals

Dr Reddy's to launch anti-asthma tablets in US market
Dr Reddy's Laboratories received approval from the US Food and Drug
Administration (USFDA) to launch generic Zafirlukast tablets. The drug is
used for treating asthma. The approval by the USFDA for its abbreviated
new drug application (ANDA) for Zafirlukast tablets follows a favourable
court judgment in the patent infringement case filed against it by patent
holder AstraZeneca. According to IMS health, Zafirlukast tablets had total
sales of around US$50 million in the US market for 12 months ended
August 31, 2010.

Morgan Stanley: Coal India - Growing with India; Initiating with Overweight

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Coal India Limited
Growing with India; Initiating with Overweight Rating

Proxy for India’s growth: Our Overweight
recommendation on Coal India (CIL) is driven by our
conviction that the company’s strong interdependence
with India’s economic growth and earnings strength and
stability will increasingly be recognized in valuations. In
addition, we do not think the stock price fully captures
possible gains from the following factors: (i) CIL’s
changing market mix, which we believe can contribute
meaningfully to realizations and margins; and (ii) solid
cash flows adding to an already strong balance sheet to
allow the healthy payout we expect from F2H13.

Citi: India Wireless: Rev/min Can Rise? – Not Mere Wishful Thinking

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India Wireless
Rev/min Can Rise? – Not Mere Wishful Thinking
 TRAI data on active subs - not so surprising — TRAI disclosed 30% of the overall
wireless subscriber base to be “inactive.” Incumbents have the highest proportion
of active subs with Bharti at 89% followed by Idea (88%) though Vodafone is only
at 75%. Idea’s high active sub proportion is commendable given its new entrant
status in 11 circles (incl Spice) and highlights aggressive strategy in these circles.
This is also seen its rev/min trend with declines sharper compared to the
incumbents. Meanwhile RCOM stood at ~65%, DoCoMo (46%) and Uninor (30%).

IRB Infrastructure:: “a play on road development...”:: LKP

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IRB Infrastructure:: “a play on road development...”



IRB Infrastructure, owned by Mhaiskar family, is a premier road developer and
operator in India with 16 road BOT projects spread over 1,272kms of which 10
are currently operational and 6 are under various stages of development.
IRB’s integrated business model enables value creation since its operations
span across construction, operation and maintenance of roads and highways.
While its in-house engineering and construction (E&C) business (with
unexecuted order book of ` 95 bn) improves visibility in its EPC revenues and
helps reduce execution risk significantly, its BOT projects generates significant
cash flows from operations which help sustain the growth momentum.

Reliance Industries- E&P segment struggling:: ShareKhan

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KG D-6 production under pressure
As per recent media reports, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is struggling to maintain
its gas production at its guidance level of 60 million standard cubic meter per day
(mmscmd; including 8mmscmd of associated gas from MA oil field) from its flagship
Krishna Godavri (KG) D-6 field. Due to reservoir complexities the production level
has now declined to 46mmscmd, which is 21% lower than the Q2FY2011 production
level of 58mmscmd. RIL is evaluating the reservoir characteristics and clarity on
the KG D-6 production ramp-up will come over the next two-three quarters.

NTPC: target Rs 240; management meetings- Motilal Oswal

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Takeaways from management meeting with investors

FY11-12 an important milestone in growth trajectory
In meetings with investors, as part of Motilal Oswal Orient India Conference in Singapore
(29, 30 November 2010), NTPC's management highlighted higher traction in various
operating parameters. FY11 and FY12 are important milestones in NTPC's growth
trajectory. This is because: (i) NTPC signed cumulative long-term PPAs for 70GW+
capacity, against 55GW as at September 2010 and the company plans to reach
75GW+ by January 2011, (ii) the company aims to award BTG contracts of 30GW+ in
the next one year v/s 2.5GW awarded over the past 2.5 years, (iii) the accelerated
pace of capacity additions (a target to add 9GW in FY11-12 v/s actual additions of
9GW over the past six years), (iv) 650MW of merchant capacity will be operational in
4QFY11, mining operations will start in CY12, and (v) NTPC expects to get approval
for the recovery of Rs60b in FY11-12 which will positively impact its cash flows.

Banking - Funding to telecom sector for 2G/3G licenses -Edelweiss

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Banking - Funding to telecom sector for 2G/3G licenses - not a systemic risk to asset quality
n News flow
Supreme Court, on appeal by one of the NGO’s, has expressed concern over banks
providing loans to telecom companies against licenses as collateral and has included
bank’s lending to 2G license aspirants as one of the issues to be investigated by CBI in
the 2G spectrum allocation case.

JP Morgan: India Equity Strategy -Preparing for an oil slick...

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• Crude Oil surges. Crude oil prices have surged to near-term highs. J.P.
Morgan Global Commodities Research forecasts that the strength could
continue. They expect crude oil prices on a spot basis to breach past
US$100/bbl in 1H 2011 and to US$120 / bbl by end 2012.

Hindustan Unilever: Street theorizes on P&G, highlight L’Oreal risk: Kotak Sec

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR) 
Consumer products 
While the Street theorizes on P&G, we highlight the L’Oreal risk. We are worried
about the potential impact of L’Oreal’s expansion plans on HUL; maintaining current
market share in personal products in the incremental market growth will be a huge
challenge for HUL, in our view. In <10 years of active operations, L’Oreal has achieved
no.1 position in hair color (urban) and no.2 in overall skincare market. It is no.1 in the
professional products channel (salons etc.) as well as pharmacy channels. While we see
potential for promotions-induced volume growth of ~12% for HUL in 3QFY11E,
we recommend staying away from a potential cyclical upturn—in volumes without
profits—in a structurally weak story.

Angel Broking: Logistics Sector Monthly Update - November 2010

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Logistics Sector Monthly Update - November 2010

Logistics Sector: Port volume data


Iron ore volumes weigh on port throughput
Traffic at India’s 12 major ports grew by a marginal 0.8% yoy during
April-November 2010 (-5.6% mom) on account of the 15.4% yoy decline in iron
ore volumes and moderate growth of 2.4% yoy reported by the petroleum oil and
lubricant (POL) products. Iron ore exports have been declining since July 2010
post the ban of exports by Karnataka from ten of its ports. In November 2010,
iron ore exports were down 37.4% yoy and 38.0% qoq at 4.0mn tonnes as
against 6.3mn tonnes in November 2009 and 6.4mn tonnes in October 2010.
The ban by the Karnataka government directly impacted port volumes where it is a
principally handled commodity viz. Mangalore (-13.1% yoy), Ennore (-12.3% yoy)
and Paradip (-2.2% yoy) during the period. However, the decline was balanced by
the 17.2% yoy and 13.2% yoy increase in fertiliser volumes and container tonnage
respectively, during the period.

Aviation India Concerns overblown:: Kotak Sec

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Aviation  
India 
Concerns overblown. Aviation stocks under our coverage (Jet Airways and Spicejet)
have corrected by 5-12% over the past two weeks on account of: (1) Perceived risk of
government intervention on account of high spot fares, and (2) weakness in the
broader market. We think the concerns are overblown and would advise investors to
take advantage of the recent correction to take/increase exposure to the sector. We
maintain our BUY rating on Spicejet and Jet Airways with target price of Rs120 and
Rs1,220, respectively.

News Round-up : Kotak Securities: Dec 11; 2010

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News Round-up 
` ONGC (ONGC IN) bids for Exxon Mobil's 25% stake in Angola oil block. The block
expects to produce 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day (7.5 million tones a year).
(BSTD)
` After an unsuccessful attempt in 2003 to set foot in Angola, ONGC Videsh is looking
at entering the country by bidding for US major ExxonMobil's 25% stake in a
deepsea acreage in the oil-rich African nation. (TTOI)

MONNET ISPAT AND ENERGY: Expansion projects on schedule: PINC

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Expansion projects on schedule
We visited Monnet’s (MIEL) Raigarh plant and saw their
existing operations and upcoming expansion projects. We
also visited the company’s underground coal mine at
Milupara and saw underground mining operation first hand.

Yields steady ahead of OMO results; Edelweiss

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Yields steady ahead of OMO results; LAF injection continues over INR 1trn
Government securities
 Sovereign bonds ended steady today; watchful ahead of the results of the central
banks planned INR 120bn OMO. Volumes remained dull at INR 34bn reflective of
the nervous sentiment of the market. The most traded 8.13% 2022 bond closed 2
bps lower at 8.18%, as participants preferred holding the more liquid paper
compared to the 10 Yr benchmark.

MSP STEEL AND POWER: Existing capacities and expansion projects: Pinc

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We visited MSP’s operations in Raigarh, Chhattisgarh. MSP
is an integrated steel producer with presence from pellet to
rolled products and has plans to further integrate with its
foray in iron ore and coal mining.

Nifty formed falling wedge pattern indicating uptrend:: Indiabulls Research

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Nifty formed falling wedge pattern indicating uptrend

Nifty belled the week on a negative note as heavy sell off was witnessed in front liners banking stocks and Nifty breached the 100 DMA. However, very last day of the week Nifty rebound smartly and closed above 100 DMA to 5857 level. On daily chart Nifty exhibiting "falling wedge" which is bullish breakout pattern if upper trend line breaks. In spite of Friday sharp rise Nifty managed to close just near to upper line of wedge pattern. If Nifty manages to trade above it then we could see upside in forthcoming session otherwise not ruling out the possibility of major correction. For the coming week support for Nifty comes at 5,750-5,822 level while resistance could be seen at 5,946-6,056 level.

India Business Update: CNBC TV18: Dec 11, 2010

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INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UP 10.8% IN OCT VS 4.4% IN SEP
Industr

SHORT-COVERING, IIP DATA SEE SENSEX RECOVER 266 PTS
Good IIP numbers and short-covering saw market snap 3-day losing streak. Nifty gained 90.85 points to 5,857.35 while Sensex closed at 19,508.89 points

IIP comes in above expectations, driven by capital goods:: Edelweiss

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Industrial activity in October, at 10.8%, grew higher than expected, led by strong growth in capital goods and consumer durables segments. However, the consumer non-durables segment continues to be weak, which is surprising given that private consumption in the past two quarters has grown at a strong pace. Going ahead, we expect IIP numbers to turn much softer, reflecting strong base effect.

On the monetary policy front, we believe, that despite strong GDP growth and industrial activity numbers, the case for pause remains intact. Inflation is on a softening trajectory while persistent tightness in domestic liquidity conditions has led to a significant hardening in short-term interest rates.

SARDA ENERGY & MINERALS: Expansion projects: PINC

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Sarda Energy & Minerals (SEML) is a manufacturer of steel
products (sponge iron, billets, ingots, TMT bars), with focus
on exports of ferro alloys. We visited company’s Raipur plant
to view existing operations and to understand its future
expansion projects.

PRAKASH INDUSTRIES: Existing capacities and expansion projects: PINC

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We visited steel plant and captive coal mine of Prakash
Industries (PIL). Part of the ‘Surya Roshni Group’, PIL has
emerged as an integrated steel manufacturer with presence
in Sponge Iron, Mild Steel, Ferro Alloys, Wire Rod,
Structural, TMT. The company is currently focused on
increasing its presence in power (project of 625MW power
plant underway).

GODAWARI POWER AND ISPAT :Pellet plant operating at >100% CU- PINC

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Pellet plant operating at >100% CU
We visited Godawari’s (GPIL) Raipur plant to conduct a
ground check on operations of 0.6mn tpa pellet plant and
20MW biomass-based power plant. We also visited plant of
Hira Ferro alloys, which is to become GPIL’s 51% subsidiary
post completion of proposed amalgamation of group
companies – RR Ispat and Hira Industries.

VISIT NOTE - MID-CAP STEEL COMPANIES :: Pinc

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We recently visited Raipur, Champa and Raigarh in
Chhattisgarh to overview the existing operations and
expansion projects of five mid-cap steel companies viz.
Godawari Power and Ispat, Monnet Ispat and Energy, Sarda
Energy & Minerals, Prakash Industries and MSP Steel and
Power.

Tata Power -Maithon – the next catalyst:: Prabhudas Lilladher

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On account of weak Q2FY11 results, standoff with RInfra for 200MWs of power in Mumbai
License Area and general overhang on the power sector, Tata Power (TPW) stock has
underperformed the Sensex by 17% in YTD (FY11). However, outlook for the company remains
considerably positive on account of major capacity additions (2650MWs in FY12E), sustained
optimism in coal prices and robust performances of its distribution and transmission
businesses.

Stone India -Q2 FY11 Result Update:: Sushil Finance

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Outlook for the Company
Stone India Ltd (SIL) is part of the Duncan Goenka Group engaged in the business of rail
products. SIL’s business segments include Carriage Business group, Locomotive Business
group and Train Power Business group supplying to the Indian Railways. SIL has posted
decent performance during the quarter ended 30th September 2010. The topline was
marginally below our expectations however margins were above estimates due to sharp
decline in Cost of goods sold as percentage of Sales. We continue to be positive on the
future prospects of the company and expect future growth to be driven by introduction of
newer products and tieup with RailRunner,U.S.A. At the current market price of ` 62, SIL is
available at valuation of 4.6x its FY12E EPS of ` 13.4. We initiated coverage with a BUY at
levels of ` 66 for initial target price of ` 87. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock at
current levels for target price of ` 87. We conducted a concall with the Management of
Stone India Ltd. Key highlights of the results and Concall discussions are summarized below.

IPO Grey market premium: Claris, SCI, Punjab & Sind Bank, MOIL, A2Z, Ravi Kumar Distilleries,: Dec 11, 2010

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
Listing Date
(Rs.)
(Rs.)




Manganese Ore (MOIL)
375
205 to 215
15-Dec
(+ 5% retail discount)
Claris Life
228
Discount
16-Dec
(lower band)
Shipping Corp FPO
140
Discount
14-Dec
(+ 5% retail discount)
Ravi Kumar Distilleries
56 to 64
 Discount
24-Dec
A2Z Maintenance
400 to 410
 Discount

Punjab & Sind Bank
113 to 120
 30 to 35

(+ 5% retail discount)


Weekly Review Report - December 11 ,2010 :Angel Broking

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Markets extend losses
The Indian stock market continued its roller coaster ride this week, with the
Sensex and Nifty falling by 2.3% each during the week. The market witnessed
weakness in the middle of the week due to the overhang of the housing
loans scam, with the Nifty falling below the 5,800 level, before strong IIP
data published on Friday drove the market higher. IIP growth for October
came in at 10.8% yoy, against market expectations of ~8.5%. Capital goods
index grew by 22.0% yoy, whereas consumer goods index was higher by
31.0% yoy. This week also, BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices
underperformed their large-cap counterparts, dropping by 6.1% and 9.2%,
respectively. During the week, BSE Bankex was the biggest loser, falling by
7.6%. It was followed by the BSE realty index, which fell by 7.1%. However,
BSE oil and gas index supported the market, gaining 1.0%.

Subscribe or not to Punjab & Sind Bank IPO? Hem Research IPO note

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Bank Snapshot
Punjab & Sind Bank is a GoI undertaking, incorporated in June 1908 in Amritsar. Bank was one of the six banks nationalized by  the GoI in April 1980, and
today, it is one of 19 nationalized banks in India. In the annual Business TodayKPMG survey of Best Banks in India 2008, it  was ranked number one on the list
of ‘Small  Sized Best Banks in India’ (i.e. banks with a then balance sheet size of
less than ` 24,000 crore).

MOIL IPO allotment Ratios and Basis:: Manganese Ore India Limited

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Allocation details by application number to be release tonight.. Keep Visiting site:

MOIL will come as option in drop down menu for COMPANY in the section below soon
update: Karvy has UPDATED details (12 noon India time, 11th Dec.) 






Allotment is for ONLY 17 shares at 5% discount to issue price of Rs 375  at RS 356.25/ share
=> Rs 6, 056.25 deducted from ASBA

Applied Lot
Shares Applied for
Allotted Shares
Ratio Of Allotment
Probabilty of Getting Share
1
17
17
1 out of 31
3%
2
34
17
3 out of 47
6%
3
51
17
2 out of 21
10%
4
68
17
6 out of 47
13%
5
85
17
6 out of 37
16%
6
102
17
6 out of 31
19%
7
119
17
7 out of 31
23%
8
136
17
8 out of 31
26%
9
153
17
9 out of 31
29%
10
170
17
10 out of 31
32%
11
187
17
6 out of 17
35%
12
204
17
13 out of 34
38%
13
221
17
13 out of 31
42%
14
238
17
15 out of 34
44%
15
255
17
9 out of 19
47%
16
272
17
1 out of 02
50%
17
289
17
19 out of 35
54%
18
306
17
19 out of 33
58%
19
323
17
20 out of 33
61%
20
340
17
7 out of 11
64%
21
357
17
2 out of 03
67%
22
374
17
23 out of 33
70%
23
391
17
8 out of 11
73%
24
408
17
29 out of 38
76%
25
425
17
26 out of 33
79%
26
442
17
43 out of 53
81%
27
459
17
28 out of 33
85%
28
476
17
51 out of 58
88%
29
493
17
10 out of 11
91%
30
510
17
31 out of 33
94%
31
527
17
49 out of 50
98%