20 November 2010

#Barkhagate SHORT/ Sell NDTV - Going to go down coming week!!

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Sell or Short NDTV on Monday morning.... 

By now everyone must have heard of Barkhagate in spite of all media attempts to hide it and keep it under wraps


For those who don't , please read


Open magazine - Click Here



or


Outlook Magazine - Click Here


There has been tremendous backlash including calls to boycott NDTV


Sell or Short NDTV on Monday morning.... 


Reliance Power SELL - Mega deals, but yet to create value:: ICICI Sec

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Reliance Power (RPower) completed a host of mega ordering and deals during
Q2FY11 such as: 1) 30GW BTG order to Shanghai Electric Company; 2) 2.4GW
equipment order supply and maintenance deal with General Electric (GE) and; 3)
Mega financing MoUs worth Rs775bn with leading Chinese banks and US EXIM
banks. We believe these announcements and deals demonstrate management’s
intent to be a front-runner in Indian power sector. However, given the uncertainty
with regard to execution entailing from far-flung execution schedule, we remain
cautious and maintain SELL.


Oil Margins – Refining margins down, auto losses up:: Anand Rathi

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Oil Margins – Vol. 21/10
Refining margins down, auto losses up
 Refining margins lower. Refining margins for 1-15 Nov were at
US$4.3/bbl, down US$1/bbl from the inflated previous-fortnight
margins, on account of end of strike at the French refineries. For
3QFY11 till date, margins stand higher at US$4.7/bbl vs. US$4.2/bbl
in 2QFY11; for FY11, we estimate margins to rise to US$4/bbl vs.
FY10 average of US$3.5/bbl. Dubai-Arab heavy spread was
US$2.9/bbl, down US$0.2/bbl from the previous fortnight.


Dabur: Namaste Laboratories Acquisition in USA: Edelwiess

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Dabur (DABUR IN, INR 96, BUY)
􀂄 Dabur: Acquisition in USA: Details
• Dabur has bought US-based hair care company Namaste Laboratories and its three
subsidiaries for US$100 million (INR 4460 mn) in an all-cash deal. The acquisition is
funded completely by external borrowing and cost of funding is around 3-4%.


Allied Digital Services- Weak quarter; exiting low-margin business: Anand Rathi

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Allied Digital Services
Weak quarter; exiting the low-margin business
 Weak results. Allied Digital Services’ (ADSL) 2QFY11 revenue was
down 3% qoq. The company has a healthy order book of `5.88bn;
however, it is gradually exiting the low-margin, business. Hence, we
cut our FY11e and FY12e earnings 21% and 20% respectively and
reduce our target price to `275 from `325 earlier. Maintain Buy.


Weekly Review November 20, 2010: Angel broking

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Markets continue to fall on global cues
Markets continued to fall during the week, with the Sensex and Nifty ending
down by 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. The week was marked by fresh
developments in the 2G spectrum allocation scam, which weighed heavily
on investors' sentiments. On the global front, there were concerns on China
tightening its monetary policy further to curb inflation and resurgent
sovereign-debt crisis, leading to a fall in global indices. BSE mid-cap and
small-cap indices fell even more compared to large-cap indices, with the
BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices falling 4.2% and 6.2%, respectively.

BSE realty index was the biggest loser yet again, down 9.3%, followed by
the BSE oil and gas index, which fell by 4.7%. BSE healthcare sector was
relatively strong this week as well, down only 0.1%.

Realty index down by 9.3%
The realty index fell 9.3%, widely underperforming the Sensex that fell by
2.8% during the turbulent week. The top losers were Unitech (-16.6%),
Mahindra Lifespace (-10.3%), Ansal Props. (-9.6%), Anant Raj Inds. (-8.7%)
and Peninsula (-6.3%). Monetary tightening by China to tackle inflation post
the recent US $600bn stimulus increased fears of slowdown in commodities’
demand and led to a sell-off in equity markets globally. Weak 2QFY2011results
by several realty players dampened hopes of revival in the sector. Unitech
was hit by the 2G spectrum sale scam, which as per CAG unduly favoured
some of the realty majors.

Old Fox recommends:CESC, SKS Micro

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Old Fox is a stock trader and analyst with over 30 years of experience. He will be regularly providing his views on stocks on this site. His suggestions are **LONG TERM** in nature and not meant for short term trading.  Old Fox recommends these stocks with 10 to 12 months horizon

1. CESC (current price) Rs 369; Target Rs 500 (upside 35.5%)

2. SKS Micro (current price) Rs 672; Target Rs 1000 (upside 49%)


Core Projects & Technologies Positives priced in; Hold :: Anand Rathi

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Core Projects & Technologies: Positives priced in; Hold


 Higher blended margins. Core Projects & Technologies’ (CPTL)
2Q revenue grew 39.1% yoy. CPTL’s order book stands at `7bn at
present. Higher-than-expected product/license revenue resulted in
blended margin expanding 393bp yoy. We maintain our target price
of `325; however, we downgrade the stock to Hold from Buy.


Tata Power HOLD- Bleak on core; Bumi dividend positive:: ICICI Sec

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Tata Power (TPL) reported below expected adjusted PAT at Rs3.9bn (I-Sec:
Rs4.96bn) primarily owing to: 1) Weak merchant realisation in Mumbai and Haldia
at Rs3.6-4.2/KwHR; 2) Lower generation at Trombay hit by turbine issue at Unit-5;
and 3) Lower production at Bumi owing to heavy rainfall and higher cash cost of
production of coal (~US$37/te). However, improved dividend from Bumi, at
~US$39mn after five quarters of negligible dividend, increased Street’s faith in
coal mine’s cashflow to support TPL’s growth ambition. Further, the management
confirmation for not being in race for Intergen assets any more, assuages
concern, as this would have not only weakened the balance sheet but also
strained the profitability. We maintain our neutral stance on TPL given: 1) Low
return from power portfolio particularly Mundra commencing operations in FY12;
ii) Continued dilution to fund growth (24% dilution in previous three years); iii)
Low profitability in merchant owing to high cost structure; and (iv) Our fair value
of Rs1,258 suggesting a 5% downside. Key upside risks being dilution of
unrelated investment (upside Rs80/share) and rising coal prices (US$10/te rise in
coal prices increases target price 9%). Maintain HOLD.


Buy: DIAMOND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE LTD-- ICICI Sec

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q We expect ordering from PGCIL, which had slowed down in past few
months to gain traction. Positive for Power conductor industry.
q Balance sheet has been strengthened considerably in the past quarter
through equity infusion thus bringing down the overall debt-equity ratio
to close to 0.6x. Company has already restructured debt to a much lower
cost of borrowings. Major capex of Rs 2.7 bn has almost completed.
q Stock correction presents good opportunity to BUY with a target price of
Rs 319, an upside of 45%.


Dabur::Pick of the week: Nov 20th: ICICI Sec

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Acquisition to help in driving growth…
Dabur India Ltd (DIL) with its diverse product portfolio, extensive
presence in under-penetrated categories and ability to foray into new
categories by successfully driving inorganic and organic growth is
expected to capitalise on growing FMCG trends. Subsequently, we expect
net sales to grow ~15% and net profit to grow ~14% in FY11. DIL’s
product portfolio is present across diverse categories, namely personal
care, health care, home care, foods and classical ayurvedic products. It is
expected to sustain its sales growth momentum buoyed by a slew of
product launches (mango and orange flavours in Chyawanprash) and
synergistic inorganic acquisitions (Hobi Kozmetik and Namaste Labs),
thereby, enabling it to further supplement its product portfolio.


Gray Market Premium Prices for India IPO: 20th Nov, 2010

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
(Rs.)
(Rs.)
Power Grid FPO
90 (+ 5% retail discount)
7 to 9
RPP Infra Projects
68 to 75
4 to 6
Manganese Ore
(MOIL)
600-660 (rumor)
 (+ 5% retail discount)
180 to 190

Unitech: Heavy monsoon a drag on construction; Buy:: Anand Rathi

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Unitech: Heavy monsoon a drag on construction; Buy


 2Q review. PAT stood at `1.74bn in 2Q, 4% below our estimate
(`1.81bn). Management said the heavy monsoons in NCR and
labour shortage due to CommonWealth Games led to slow down in
construction in 2Q. Debt from real-estate business remained largely
unchanged but `6.9bn was added to the books, mainly for some
‘structural changes’ in the holding company’s wireless business. Net
D/E stood at 0.53x. We roll over our NAV to `89 in Mar ’12e from
`105 in Mar ’11e due to calling-off of one Mumbai JV (`3.4/share),
lower sales volumes and delay in foray into new markets.


Unitech: CAG report on Uninor spectrum allocation an overhang: Edelweiss

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Event: The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India has released its findings
on audit of issue of licences and allocation of 2G spectrum. The report has
highlighted that the 2G licence and spectrum was sold at a significant discount to the
fair price. Besides the below-fair-value sale, the report also alleges suppression and
misrepresentation of facts by several players, including Unitech (UT).


Wipro - Tries to catch up to peer growth:: Emkay

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Wipro Ltd
Tries to catch up to peer growth


REDUCE

CMP: Rs 418                                       Target Price: Rs 420


n     Positive commentary on demand, expects CY11 budgets to be up by ~2-4%. Expects continuation of strong revenue traction in Europe (as in Sep’10 qtr) for the sector
n     Wipro attempts to get it’s act together to cut revenue underperformance V/s peers (we believe it’s ‘WIP’). See downside risks to mgns driven by cost pressures/ lower rev growth
n     Valuation discount to peers appears justified given lower than peer growth and margin headwinds ahead. Retain REDUCE with a price target of Rs 420

FII debt limit auction likely in November end: Edelweiss

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FII debt limit auction likely in November end
Government securities
 Sovereign bond rose on supposition that the auction of the investment limit for FII
is likely to be announced by the end of the month. In September, the government
doubled the FII investment cap in government bonds to $10 bn with a condition
that the investment can be made in bonds with residual maturity over five years.
The benchmark 7.80% 2020 gained 5 bps closing at 8.02% while the 8.13% 2022
bond closed unchanged at 8.06%, touching an intraday low of 8.04%.


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