15 November 2010

Tata Power - Improving coal realizations.- Kotak Sec

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Tata Power (TPWR)
Utilities
Improving coal realizations. Tata Power (TPWR) reported a tepid performance in the
standalone power business, with lower generation from assets due to technical
hindrances in one of the power units. Consolidated earnings were supported by
revenues from the coal business, which grew 30% yoy despite a 10% yoy decline in
volumes. We continue to remain positive on the prospects of the coal business, and
maintain our ADD rating and target price of Rs1,420/share.

Headline inflation steady at 8.58%:: Edelweiss

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n  Headline inflation steady at 8.58%
WPI inflation stood at 8.58% Y-o-Y for October, slightly higher than consensus’ and Edelweiss estimates (8.5% Y-o-Y). Inflation for September stood at 8.62% Y-o-Y, while that for August was revised to 8.82% against 8.51% reported earlier, Y-o-Y. Although non-food manufacturing inflation increased slightly (5.07% in October versus 4.94% in September, Y-o-Y), the broader trend remains one of softening. Sequential inflation data, M-o-M (3MMA), has been showing an uptick since the past two months, but has generally been on a moderating trend through FY11

Media - facts and figures; sector update:: Edelweiss

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*       India saw the fastest growth in ad spends in the whole of Asia Pacific
*       India’s ad growth rate of 28% is well ahead of the number two Indonesia at 24% , followed by Hong Kong at 18%
*       Print starting to grow faster than TV  as per both Nielsen and Adex (in terms of volumes). This could be possibly due to base effect
*       All the Top 10 advertisers on TV were FMCG companies while not a single FMCG player in Top 10 shows clear bias of FMCG for TV media
*       HUL, Reckitt Benckiser, and Coca Cola India were the top three advertisers on TV while Naaptol.com, Tata Motors, and Maruti Udyog were the Top 3 advertisers in print
*       In print, Education (largest sector) was a big laggard with a growth of just 4% while the next two sectors Banking & finance grew 50% Y-o-Y  and Services sector grew by 39% Y-o-Y
*       Ad agencies are gung ho and are expanding a sure sign that ‘all is well’
*       Top three categories in print are education, services and banking & finance and on TV are food & beverages, personal care and services
*       While ad growth in Q2FY11  for most companies has been quite robust in spite of high base last year, we expect growth rates to inch up sharply in Q3FY10
*       Top Picks: Sun TV, IBN18, Dish TV, PVR, Jagran Prakashan

OIL India- Higher crude sales volumes boost profits;Buy: Anand Rathi

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OIL India
Higher crude sales volumes boost profits; re-iterate Buy
 Strong profits. OIL India reported net profit of `9.2bn (up 27% yoy
and 83% qoq), more than Street expectations and ours, bolstered by
strong crude sales volumes, which came 2% more than we expected
as stocks built up during 1Q due to the NRL shutdown were sold.
The lower subsidy led to net realisation rising to US$63.2/bbl
(US$49.7 in 1QFY11 and US$56.9 in 2QFY10).


Tulip Telecom Strong 2QFY11 performance: Anand Rathi

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Tulip Telecom
Strong 2QFY11 performance buoyed by revenue traction
 Results largely in line with estimates. Tulip’s 2QFY11 revenue
was 5% ahead of our estimate, due to strong growth in both, the
wireless and the fibre-optics businesses. EBITDA (+29% yoy)
came 3% above our estimate. Net profit was exactly in line with
our estimate, but ~6% higher than consensus (Bloomberg).


Tata Steel:Upgrading FY11 EPS by 14% -Motilal Oswal

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Tata Steel (TATA IN; Mkt Cap USD11.9b, CMP Rs606, Neutral)

Tata Steel's 2QFY11 consolidated adjusted PAT declined 30% QoQ to Rs13.1b  

Tata Steel's board has approved the raising of Rs70b of equity related instruments for investing in high RoI projects (Indian Greenfield and overseas Raw Material). This will dilute equity by 10-15%. 

The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 6x FY12E. Although valuations are not demanding, the near term outlook is challenging. Equity dilutions and significant capital deployment in future projects will limit the 
upside. Maintain Neutral.

The Three Monkeys & India’s Investment Story: Anand Rathi

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India EcoTrix: Nov ’10
The Three Monkeys & India’s Investment Story
 Theme – Subdued investment. After rebounding from the crisis
lows, investment growth in India is stalling and there is no obvious
sign of an impending recovery. The consensus seems to be convinced
that despite this, India is poised to grow 8.5% in FY11 and accelerate
thereafter on the back of strong private consumption that will
compensate for low investment growth. Notably, India has never
registered strong real growth without buoyant investment, particularly
industrial investment. Besides leading to possible future
disappointments, overt optimism about real growth is glossing over
various structural issues and may lead to inappropriate policy choices
and portfolio selections.


Sanghvi Movers 2QFY11: trading at attractive valuation: Anand Rathi

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Sanghvi Movers
2QFY11: trading at attractive valuation
 Maintain a Buy. In 2QFY11, bolstered by capacity additions
Sanghvi Movers reported revenue and earnings in line with our
estimates. We retain our estimates and Buy rating.


Bharti Airtel- Africa tariff cuts, subdued India volumes: Anand Rathi

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Bharti Airtel
Africa tariff cuts, subdued India volumes drive 2QFY11 miss

 Results belie expectations. Bharti’s 2QFY11 revenue marginally belied
(0.7%) our estimate, due to weak wireless-traffic growth in India. EBITDA
was 6.1% below our estimate mainly owing to a sharp decline in EBITDA
margin in Africa. PAT was 18% below estimate largely due to EBITDA
miss, as higher forex gains offset the impact of sharply higher African taxes.


LAKSHMI ENERGY AND FOODS- Steady quarter: Edelweiss

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􀂄 Revenue above estimate; PAT in line
Lakshmi Energy and Foods (LEAF) reported strong revenue growth of 106% Y-o-Y
(13.6% Q-o-Q) in Q4FY10, on account of robust sales of Pusa rice in the domestic
market and higher offtake from Food Corporation of India (FCI), coupled with
improved rice realisation. As expected, EBITDA margin improved Q-o-Q to 15.2%,
an 80bps improvement over Q3FY10. However, it was lower than our expectation
due to higher operating expenses and lower margin in the power segment. PAT
came in line at INR 240 mn. Y-o-Y, it dipped 25.1%, primarily due to substantial
dip in operating margins in rice as well as power segments due to lower
realizations.


Balrampur Chini Mills - Weak quarter- Kotak Sec

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Balrampur Chini Mills (BRCM)
Sugar
Weak quarter due to sales of high-cost inventory. BRCM reported operating loss of
Rs252 mn, which was lower than our estimates of profit of Rs18 mn, led by lower-thanestimated
profitability in the sugar segment. We have tweaked our assumptions for
selling price of sugar and the price of sugarcane in line with the current trends in the
market. Our estimates remain the same. Retain ADD rating with a target price of Rs102
based on 6X March ’12E EBITDA.


RCOM- Another weak quarter, on expected lines- Kotak Sec

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Reliance Communications (RCOM)
Telecom
Another weak quarter, on expected lines. SELL. RCOM’s struggle to grow revenues
(across wireless and non-wireless business lines) continued in 2QFY11 with the
company reporting flat qoq overall revenues (down 10% yoy), 3% below estimates.
Aggressive cost control aided the company meet our EBITDA estimate and tax writeback
led to better-than-expected PAT. A stretched balance sheet (net debt to TTM
EBITDA now at 4.3X) in addition to revenue woes keep us negative on the stock. SELL.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Nov-2010

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Nov-2010 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES417111275.98640461958.0959784318409.26-682.10
INDEX OPTIONS2925438917.7532918010030.68192666258971.63-1112.93
STOCK FUTURES815222306.04765422155.63151268942960.87150.41
STOCK OPTIONS21369701.3321941723.73347981018.41-22.40
      Total-1667.02

 
 

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 15-Nov-2010

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 15-Nov-2010.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII15-Nov-20102586.462272.78313.68

 
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 15-Nov-2010.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII15-Nov-20101189.351192.74-3.39

TECHNO ELECTRIC & ENGINEERING Roburst quarter:Edelweiss

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􀂃 Numbers in line; power subsidiary starts to contribute
Techno Electric & Engineering’s (TEE) Q2FY11 results were in line with our
expectations primarily led by strong growth in the power subsidiary, Simran Wind.
Consolidated revenue grew 18.4% Y-o-Y to INR 2,068 mn as the energy segment
(17% of total revenue) grew 36.7% Y-o-Y to INR 354 mn. The EPC segment (83%
of total revenue) also recorded moderate growth of 15.3% to INR 1,714 mn. The
standalone revenue (which houses the EPC business and the 45 MW wind power of
the erstwhile Super Wind) grew 13.2% Y-o-Y to INR 1,871 mn. Reduced raw
material cost (down 204bps to 61.8% of sales) and other expenses (down 243bps
to 6.2% of sales) helped the company report a 462bps improvement in margin.
The consolidated EBITDA recorded robust growth of 40.5% Y-o-Y to INR 609 mn.
Standalone EBTIDA grew 14.4% Y-o-Y to INR 413 mn on back of 24bps Y-o-Y
margin improvement to 22.1%. Sharp fall in other income hit the company’s PAT
as it reported PAT growth of 24.5% Y-o-Y to INR 446 mn on consolidated basis. On
standalone basis, TEE reported decline of 5.5% to INR 330 mn. It recorded order
inflow of INR ~3 bn during H1FY11, taking order backlog to INR 12.4 bn.


AIA ENGINEERING- Keeping pace: Edelweiss

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􀂄 Numbers in line with estimates; margin improves
AIA Engineering’s (AIA) Q2FY11 results were in line with our expectations as the
sharp increase in raw material cost was arrested by dip in other expenses. Revenue
recorded 18.4% Y-o-Y growth to INR 2,585 mn, led by strong pick up in volume
which grew 23.1% Y-o-Y to 28,448 tonnes even as realisation dipped marginally by
3.8% Y-o-Y to INR 90.9/kg. Exports contribution dipped to 53% of sales (from 60%
during Q2FY10) at INR 1,365 mn, up 4% Y-o-Y, even as domestic sales picked to
INR 1,220 mn, up 40% Y-o-Y to 47.2% of total sales. Higher ferro alloy prices
continued to put pressure on raw material cost, which increased by 34.6% Y-o-Y to
INR 1,289 mn (a 600bps surge to 49.9% of sales). This was negated by a equally
sharp dip in other expenses which was 9.3% Y-o-Y (a 649bps dip to 21.2% of sales)
despite a forex loss of INR 32 mn on the back of exchange rate volatility. EBITDA
improved 21.1% Y-o-Y to INR 624 mn as margin expanded 54bps Y-o-Y to 24.2%.
Despite reduced tax outgo, sharp fall in other income (down 70.7% Y-o-Y to INR 34
mn) led to a reduced growth in PAT to INR 449 mn, a growth of 7% Y-o-Y.


MAN INFRACONSTRUCTION Steady revenue growth:Edelweiss

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MAN INFRACONSTRUCTION
Steady revenue growth; margins decline


􀂃 Moderate revenue growth; margins decline
Man Infraconstruction’s (MICL) Q2FY11 top line, at INR 1.5 bn, jumped 38%
Y-o-Y and 4% Q-o-Q. However, EBITDA margin came in at 18.7%, down 590bps
Y-o-Y and 540bps Q-o-Q. PAT for the quarter stood at INR 180 mn against INR
171 mn and INR 219 mn in Q2FY10 and Q1FY11, respectively. PAT margin, at
11.8%, dipped 370bps Y-o-Y and 310bps Q-o-Q.


USHER AGRO Strong growth continues:Edelweiss

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􀂄 Revenue and PAT above estimates
Usher Agro (Usher) posted strong revenue growth of 63% Y-o-Y (19.3% Q-o-Q),
at INR 1,145 mn, ahead of our estimates. EBIDTA was up 58.1% Y-o-Y in
Q1FY11. Strong revenue growth was owing to robust sales volume, coupled with
higher realisation of rice. Rice accounted for ~80% of the revenue, at ~INR 950
mn in Q1FY11 (inclusive of INR 93.6 mn revenue from exports); wheat products
accounted for the remaining. Net profit was ahead of estimates, at INR 81 mn, up
47.2% Y-o-Y, predominantly due to the positive surprise on revenues. EBIDTA
margin in Q1FY11 was marginally lower at 13.6% vis-à-vis 14% in Q1FY10.


NSE, Bulk deals, 15-Nov-2010

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Security Name
Client Name
Buy / Sell
Quantity Traded
Wght. Avg. 
Price
Antarctica Graphics Ltd
FIROZ AHAMMAD SHAIK
BUY
7,12,500
0.45
Antarctica Graphics Ltd
FIROZ AHAMMAD SHAIK
SELL
7,12,500
0.39
BS TransComm Limited
KAMINI FINANCE AND INVESTMENT
BUY
1,10,000
212.39

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE Impacted by extraordinary expenses:Edelweiss

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􀂃 PAT down 47% at INR 1.7 bn versus estimated INR 3.2 bn
Despite booking revenues from past regulatory assets (INR 2.47 bn), along with
its corresponding expenses, Reliance Infrastructure (RELI) reported PAT of INR
1.7 bn against our estimates of INR 3.2 bn. The fall of 47% could be due to forex
losses, as other income of INR (-508 mn) was lower by 131%.


Deccan Chronicle Holding – 2QFY2011 Result Update Angel Broking

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 Deccan Chronicle Holding – 2QFY2011 Result Update
Angel Broking maintains a Buy on Deccan Chronicle Holding with a Target Price of Rs190.

Post Deccan Chronicle Holdings’ (DCHL) 2QFY2011 results, we have revised our
estimates downwards primarily to factor in lower revival in advertisement volume.
The company posted dismal results for the quarter, with top-line de-growth of
5.7% yoy and earnings decline of 17.3% yoy impacted by margin contraction by
281bp yoy. Owing to attractive valuations, we maintain a Buy on the stock.

Page Industries – 2QFY2011 Result Update Angel Broking

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Page Industries – 2QFY2011 Result Update
Angel Broking recommends a Neutral on Page Industries.

For 2QFY2011, Page Industries posted a robust set of numbers, above our
expectations. The company posted strong revenue growth, led by volume growth
and higher price realisation. Operating margins also came in above our
estimates, which we believe are not sustainable going ahead due to increasing
raw-material prices.

Jubilant Organosys-Topline grew by 5.7%YoY:: Motilal Oswal

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Jubilant Organosys (JOL IN; Mkt Cap USD1.2b, CMP Rs313, Neutral)

Topline grew by 5.7%YoY to Rs9.88b while Adjusted PAT increased by 42.3%YoY to Rs821m  

Overall, the Pharma and Life Sciences Products and Services (PLSPS) business reported revenue growth of 2.7%YoY to Rs8.5b while Agri & Performance Polymers (APP) business recorded 29%YoY growth to Rs1.38b.
      
We believe Jubilant is well positioned to exploit the expected increase in outsourcing from India. Over the past few years, Jubilant has made two large acquisitions in North America which has strengthened its presence in the sterile segment but has also resulted in a highly leveraged balance sheet.  

High debt, large FCCB redemption (US$202m in May-2011 including YTM) and low RoCE (8-12%) remain an overhang. the stock is valued at 15.4x FY11E EPS and 12.8x FY12E EPS. Maintain Neutral.

BSE, Bulk deals, 15/11/2010

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Company
Client Name
Deal Type *
Quantity
Price **
7SEAS TECH
MEENU JAINBHANSHALI
S
50000
74.45
Accel Trans
PORINJUV VELIYATH
B
55900
32.15
Arvind Intl
AJAY KUMAR AGARWAL
B
35000
41.13