India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
Asian Economic Comment
India: IP stabilises
„ A look ahead - Our own lead economic index (LEI, chart 2) says IP
should stabilise, but LEI has yet to move up decisively due to the tight credit
conditions. So we do not yet view this IP bounce to 10.8% (from 4.4%) as
the start of a new upswing. Instead, high volatility is due to statistical and
seasonal effects. IP growth centres on a 3 month average of 7-8%. We
expect this to continue until our LEI moves up. Monetary policy is angled to
bring down inflation and cool down accelerating lending growth. We think
any major change to ease policy at the Dec 16th RBI meeting would be
premature. So we expect no change to money policy on 16th
.
„ Industrial pause - October's 10.8% IP beat consensus expectations of
8.5% due to: (1) strong growth in basic goods (metal alloys, non-metal
minerals), (2) higher growth in durable consumer products (light
manufactured goods plus transport/vehicles products), (3) seasonal spike in
production pre-Diwali (Diwali was in November this year, Oct last).
No comments:
Post a Comment