Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
NTPC: One offs cloud muted earnings…
NTPC reported a topline of Rs 13,350.5 crore, slightly higher than
estimates (Rs 12006.9 crore). Reported EBITDA stood at Rs 2108.6 crore
down 34.4% YoY due to provisions of Rs 1262.6 crore in respect of
debtors on the basis of certain orders from electricity tribunal APTEL.
Other income was at Rs 2016.9 crore primarily due to depreciation write
back of Rs 1763.34 crore (NTPC provided depreciation on the basis on
CERC norms, hence the reversal of depreciation). This resulted in PAT of
Rs 2107 crore (increase of 14.4% QoQ and decline of 13.3 %YoY).
However, adjusted PAT was at ~Rs 1851 crore (explained in detail) below
our estimates (Rs 1955.7 crore).
Highlights during Q2 FY11
Overall generation for Q2FY11 stood at 52.2 billion units (BUs),
down 6.4% QoQ. The plant load factor (PLF) for coal stations stood
at 82.91%. The availability factor of coal stations and gas stations
was 86.48% and 92.07%, respectively. On the commissioning front,
NTPC commissioned one unit of the Dadri plant (capacity of 490
MW) during Q2FY11. The company has revised capacity addition
guidance to 3150 MW from 4150 MW in FY11. However, we expect
the company to commission about 2650 MW of capacity in FY11E.
Outlook
Slippages in power generation are common but we feel it is more
pronounced in case of NTPC. For FY12E, the capacity addition is
~9000 MW where further slippages cannot be ruled out. The
company intends to sell ~36-37% of 1000 MW (Farakka and Korba
to be commissioned in FY11E) as merchant power. Along with
timely additions, this could provide earnings upside, going forward.
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 199, the stock is trading at P/E of 16.5x and P/B of 2.2x
for FY12E earnings. Due to capacity slippage in FY11E, we have
downgraded FY11E EPS estimates by 6.1 % and hence our DCF based
target price to Rs 226 (from Rs 241 earlier). Hence, we maintain our BUY
rating on the stock.
No comments:
Post a Comment