25 November 2010

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR): Nov 25th 2010

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
§  Nifty opened on a flat note and traded in a narrow range until the last hour when the LIC Hsg scam broke out and the index went into a tailspin dropping 1.15%. The index however managed to hold above Tuesdays ‘hammer’ low of 5825 which is a positive sign in the immediate short-term. Hourly oscillators turned bearish with the sharp selloff, but there as signs of positive divergence on the charts indicating a short-term reversal is imminent. Market breadth continues has improved as compared to previous few trading sessions despite ending in favor of declines. Nifty 50 stocks breadth was at an adverse 1:5. The index is near the 100 DEMA (5809) as well as 75 points off the one year trend channel support at 5750, thus providing enough support for an intermediate bottom to be formed. The short-term trading range is likely to be between 5800-6000 with a positive bias.

§  Banking, Realty and PSU shares led the late hour market downfall with a loss of ~2.5%. FMCG and Auto shares bucked the negative trend. LIC Hsg stock dropped 18% in yesterday’s session, closing below its 200 DMA with substantial volumes indicating the end of its bull run from March 2009 to Sept 2010. Bullish Setups: ITC, HNDL, TATA, CIPLA, MSIL, HH Bearish Setups: IOC, BHEL, TPWR

§  US and European indices closed with good gains suggesting a robust short-term and medium term uptrend. The price and momentum structure point to higher levels in the coming sessions. DXY has faced rejection from 80 level which could lead to a consolidation in the immediate short-term. It continues to close above the 50 DMA reinforcing the intermediate uptrend.

§  Interesting chart setupsTATA, BHARTI, ITC, CIPLA, IOC, IVRC

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