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Blue Star Q2FY11E Result Estimates
Expect BLSR to report healthy performance in Q2FY11E
n Revenue growth at 17% YoY to Rs6.6 bn led by EMP&PAC (+17% yoy to Rs4.9 bn). Cooling products & PEIS to witness healthy growth at 19% and 18% YoY to Rs1.3 bn and Rs0.4 bn respectively.
n Expect EBITDA growth at 15% YoY to Rs746 mn with 20 bps YoY drop in EBITDA margins to 11.3%
n APAT growth at 11% YoY to Rs490 mn.
Key things to watch (1) ability to secure MEP orders (2) revival in commercial real estate.
BHEL Q2FY11E Result Estimates
n Expect BHEL to report healthy revenue growth at 26% YoY to Rs83.7 bn on back of strong order book.
n However, expect EBITDA margins to drop by 90 bps YoY to 13.0% due to exhaustion of low cost raw material inventory.
n Expect EBITDA growth to be lower at 20% YoY to R13.5 bn.
n But, APAT growth to be healthy at 25% YoY to Rs10.7 bn – attributed to high other income (+41% YoY).
We shall watch out for management guidance on order inflows
JK Paper Q2FY11 Results Expectation : Net Sales Rs 2.8 bn, PAT Rs 246 mn
JK Paper is expected to report their Q2FY11 results today i.e. October 29th, 2010.
We estimate Q2FY11 results for JK Paper to remain muted. Net revenues are expected to decline by 2% YoY to Rs 2.8 bn. Paper sale volumes are expected to decline by 6% YoY to 63,500 MT while we estimate a 4% uptick in realisations to Rs 44,000 / MT. EBITDA and EBITDA margins are likely to remain flat at Rs 635 mn and 22.7% respectively despite falling pulp prices, benefit of which is likely to impact positively in H2FY11 only. We estimate APAT of Rs 246 mn (+5% YoY) resulting in AEPS of Rs 3.2 for Q2FY11 as against Rs 3.0 in Q1FY11.
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd (MSSL) – Q2FY11 result expectation
We expect MSSL to report strong 25% YoY and 8% QoQ growth in sales due to better car volumes. Expect EBIDTA margins to improve by 330bps YoY and 100 bps mainly due to topline growth as well as favorable currency mix. Key things to watch out for growth outlook for SMR
n We expect net sales to grow by 25% YoY and 7.6% QoQ to Rs 20.5bn.
n We expect EBITDA to increase by 78.7% YoY and 18.5% QoQ to Rs 2.3bn.
n EBIDTA margin is likely to expand by 330 bps YoY and 100 bps QoQ to 11.0%
n We expect APAT to increase by 80.6% YoY and 69.8% QoQ to Rs 1.1bn
JK Tyres & Industries Ltd (JKI) – Q2FY11 result expectation
We expect raw material cost pressure to impact the operating performance of JKT. Despite of 35% YoY and 8% QoQ growth in topline, we expect EBITDA margins to decline 730bps YoY but expand by 90 bps QoQ. Key things to watch out for (1) Rubber price movement and (2) price hikes and performance of Tornel
n We expect net sales to grow by 34.5% YoY and 8.4% QoQ to Rs 12.7bn.
n We expect EBITDA to decrease by 33.5% YoY but increase by 24.6% QoQ to Rs 911mn.
n EBIDTA margin is likely to contract by 730 bps YoY but expand by 90 bps QoQ to 7.2%.
n We expect APAT to decline by 44.4% YoY but increase 69.7% QoQ to Rs 331mn.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) – Q2FY11 result expectation (Standalone)
We expect a sharp YoY drop of 250 bps in EBIDTA margins despite 20% YoY (flat QoQ) volumes growth. The drop in margins is due to exceptionally high margins last year driven by lower RM cost. Key things to watch out for (1) raw material price contracts (2) update on production constraints.
n We expect net sales to grow by 20.2% YoY and 4.5% QoQ to Rs 53.9bn
n We expect EBIDTA to grow by 2.2% YoY and 1.3% QoQ to Rs 7.9bn
n EBIDTA margin are likely to decline by 250bps YoY but decline 40 bps QoQ to 14.6%.
n We expect APAT to grow by 7.6% YoY and 13.0% QoQ to Rs 6.4bn
Hero Honda Motor Ltd. (HH) – Q2FY11 result expectation
We expect Hero Honda to report improved operating performance QoQ, although poor on YoY. EBIDTA margins to expand by 120bps QoQ but decline 310 bps YoY. Sequential improvements in margin to be driven by price hikes in the quarter and lower other expense. Key things to watch out for (1) Capacity constraints (2) announcement of new plant
n We expect net sales to grow by 11.9% YoY and 5.8% QoQ to Rs 45.4bn
n We expect EBIDTA to decline 7.3% YoY but grow by 14.5% QoQ to Rs 6.9bn
n EBIDTA margin are likely to compress by 310 bps YoY but expand 120 bps QoQ to 15.2%.
n We expect APAT to decline by 4.9% YoY but grow 15.4% QoQ to Rs 5.7bn
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) – Q2FY11 result expectation
We expect MSIL to report strong QoQ performance driven by volume growth of 27% YoY/10% QoQ. Expect EBDITA margins to expand by 60 bps QoQ but decline 170 bps YoY (due to higher royalty). Expect other expenses to put some pressure on margins due to higher sales promotion and marketing costs. Key things to watch out for (1) raw material price contracts (2) impact of currency movements and (3) capacity expansion plans.
n We expect net sales to grow by 29.9% YoY and 13.7% QoQ to Rs 93.6bn
n We expect EBIDTA to grow by 12.5% YoY and 20.1% QoQ to Rs 10.3 bn
n EBIDTA margin are likely to decline by 170bps YoY but expand by 60bps QoQ to 11.0%.
n We expect APAT to grow by 13.2% YoY and 25.9 % QoQ to Rs 6.5 bn
ICICI Bank Q2FY11 result estimates
ICICI bank’s net income is likely to decline by 2.4% to Rs37.7bn in Q2FY11 driven by higher treasury gains of in Q2FY10. Key things to watch out- 1) moderation if any in credit cost to be further positive. 2) Impact of BOR merger
BILT (Conso) Q1FY11 Results Expectations: Net Sales Rs 12.4 bn, PAT Rs 782 mn
BILT is expected to announce its Q1FY11 results today i.e. October 29th, 2010.
We estimate YoY increase of 22% and 12% in paper and pulp sale volumes to 219,000 MT and 23,000 MT respectively. Clubbed with 14% YoY increase in paper realisations to Rs 46,000 / MT and 34% increase in pulp realisations to Rs 43,000 / MT, net revenues are likely to go up by 53% YoY to Rs 12.4 bn. With overall margins of 21.8% (+220 bps YoY / -30 bps QoQ) we expect aggregate EBITDA to rise by 39% YoY to Rs 2.7 bn. BILT is likely to see a sharp YoY jump of 35% in interest and 9% in depreciation. Strong topline is likely to lead to 87% YoY growth in APAT to Rs 782 mn with AEPS of Rs 1.2.
Voltamp Transformers Q2FY11E Result Estimates (Result on 29th October)
n Results expected to show improvement QoQ after reporting 10.9% EBITDA margins in Q1FY11.
n Expect volume growth of 14% and realization improvement of 8.4% to result in revenue growth of 24% YoY.
n Expect in EBITDA margins of 15.3%a decline of 260bps yoy but up 440bps QoQ.
n Consequently EBITDA to grow by 6% yoy. Higher dep. to lead to muted PAT growth of 2% YoY.
n Key things to watch - (1) order inflow from industrial segment, (2) migration to utilities and (3) realizations/margins in order inflow.
Tata Chemicals (Conso) Q2FY11 Results Expectation : Net Sales Rs 28.3 bn, PAT Rs 2.4 bn
Tata Chemicals is expected to report their Q2FY11 results tomorrow i.e. October 29th, 2010.
n We estimate consolidated level revenues to increase by 26% YoY to Rs 28.3 bn. EBITDA margins are expected to expand by 290 bps over last year to 20.9%. Consequently we expect APAT to increase by 45% YoY to Rs 2.4 bn resulting in AEPS of Rs 10.0.
n On a standalone basis we expect revenues at Rs 14.6 bn, +15% YoY and APAT of Rs 1.4 bn.
n Revenues of subsidiaries BMGL and GCIP are expected to decline by 18% and 6% YoY respectively to Rs 3.9 bn and Rs 4.4 bn while IMACID is expected to report revenue growth of 40%% YoY to Rs 1.4 bn.
Chambal Fertilisers Q2FY11 Results Expectation : Net Sales Rs 11.2 bn, PAT Rs 805 mn
Chambal Fertilisers is expected to report their Q2FY11 results tomorrow i.e. October 30th, 2010.
Net revenues are estimated to increase by 16% YoY to Rs 11.2 bn. We expect a decline of 32.5% in urea sale volumes leading to 33% YoY drop in fertiliser revenues to Rs 4.5 bn. Revenues from trading and textiles are expected to increase YoY by ~3x and 10% to Rs 5.3 bn and Rs 738 mn respectively while shipping revenues are expected to decline by 15% YoY to Rs 695 mn.
We estimate EBIT margins of 17%, 5% and 25% in fertilisers, trading and shipping respectively. Overall EBITDA margins are expected to decline by 240 bps YoY to 17.5% while absolute EBITDA is expected to increase marginally by 2% YoY to Rs 2.0 bn. We estimate a marginal drop of 4% YoY in APAT to Rs 805 mn resulting in AEPS of Rs 1.9 for this quarter as against Rs 2.0 last year.
Bharat Bijlee Q2FY11 Result Update; Improvement accelerates, upgrade to Buy; Target Price: Rs 1,350
n PAT grow by 22% yoy and 160% qoq to Rs151mn (our expectations – Rs129mn) - driven by increase in EBITDA margins to 13.8%
n Higher EBITDA margins driven by both transformers (better margins on low base) and motors (volumes growth of 20% drive operational leverage)
n Revenue growth at 8%, below expectations of 13% growth
n Maintain earnings; Valuations (EV) cheap on absolute basis at 3.9x FY12E EBITDA as well as relative basis at 20% discount to peers; Top pick in transformers pack; Upgrade to Buy
Deepak Fertilisers Q2FY11 Result Update; Upgrade price target; BUY; Target Price: Rs 250
n Q2FY11 APAT at Rs 448 mn (+23.4%yoy) was in line while EBITDA margins at 19.3% were below estimates
n Lower margins in chemical segment at 26.2% due to higher gas cost and lower production affected EBITDA margins
n Production to start at new TAN plant by Nov ’10, should start contributing to revenues and profits by Q4FY11
n Maintain BUY with revised price target of Rs 250 (from Rs 175) due to upgrade in valuation multiple from 7x to 10x
Piramal Glass Q2FY11 Result Update; Shift Continues, Maintain BUY; Target Price: Rs 160
n Piramal Glass (PGL) Q2FY11 performance exceeds expectation – revenue growth at 2.6% yoy to Rs3.1 bn and APAT up 3700% yoy to Rs206 mn
n C&P contribution improves from 43% of revenues to 48% of revenues – C&P register revenue growth of 14.6% yoy to Rs1.4 bn
n Fine-tune assumptions on interest expenditure and material costs – upgrade FY11E earnings by 9.9% (Rs9.3/Share) and FY12E earnings by 3.0% (Rs18.7/Share)
n Maintain BUY with revised target price of Rs160/Share
HT Media Q2FY11 Result Update; Slightly below estimates, retain HOLD; Target Price: Rs 175
n Q2FY11 headline profit growth although strong at 61% yoy to Rs388mn, is slightly below our estimate of Rs431mn
n Cons. ad-revenues grew by 17% yoy with Hindi ad-revenue growth of 30% yoy and English at 13% yoy
n EBIDTA margins increased by 310bps yoy to 17.8% v/s our estimate of 21.8% due to higher revenue contribution from Burda, which registered EBIDTA loss
n Estimates maintained. Retain HOLD rating with revised target price of Rs175 (v/s Rs159 earlier)
Punjab National Bank Q2FY11 Result Update; Strong earnings; slippages trending down; BUY; Target Price: Rs 1,500
n PNB’s Q2FY11 NII at Rs29.8bn better than expectations driven by 6% qoq growth in advances and 12bps expansion in NIMs. Net profit at Rs10.7bn in line with expectations
n Slippages surprise positively at Rs9.1bn lower than Rs12.1bn reported in Q1FY11. However, gross NPAs rise due to lower recoveries. Provision cover strong at 77% (RBI norms)
n Other positives in the result – (1) CASA at 40.6% despite strong growth in balance sheet (2) provisions done at 65% on net incremental slippages and (3) robust fee income growth
n Valuations not unreasonable at 2.2x FY11E/1.7x FY12E ABV. Continue BUY rating with TP of Rs1500
Bank of Baroda Q2FY11 Result Update; Robust performance in earnings and asset quality; BUY; Target Price: Rs 1,160
n BOB’s Q2FY11 net profit at Rs10.2bn was far ahead of our expectations driven by better than expected NII and lower than expected provisions
n The slippages were extremely positive surprise at just Rs2.9bn (0.6% annualised). Consequently, the provision requirement was also down
n No provision for pensions was the only negative surprise in the results. However, we believe that with strong revenue traction, BOB can easily provide upto Rs2bn/quarter for same
n Expect strong performance to continue on better NPA ratios, strong RoEs and inexpensive valuations at 2.4x FY11E/1.9x FY12E ABV. Maintain BUY with TP of Rs1,160
Cummins Q2FY11 Result Update; Domestic Business Traction, Maintain HOLD; Target Price: Rs 820
n Cummins reported strong performance – revenue growth 76% yoy to Rs10.7 bn and APAT growth of 91% yoy to Rs1.7 bn
n All-round performance - Domestic business grew 45% yoy to Rs7.9 bn and Export business grew 280% yoy to Rs2.8 bn
n Management outlook comforting for capacity constraints, export business momentum and operating margins
n Factoring 4-5% earnings upgrade for FY11E (Rs32/Share) and FY12E (Rs37.3/Share) – Maintain ‘HOLD’ rating with revised target price of Rs820/Share
Thermax Q2FY11 Result Update; Product Order Revives; Maintain BUY; Target Price: Rs 943
n Stellar performance – (1) Revenues up 60% yoy to Rs10.9 bn, (2) EBITDA up 62% yoy to Rs1.3 bn with stable margins at 11.8% (3) PAT up 65% yoy to Rs895 mn
n Strong performance in both segments - Energy up 71% yoy and Environment up 51% yoy - driven by execution on orders received in last 6 quarters
n Continued order inflow momentum, driven by product orders which is encouraging sign- order inflows of Rs14.1 bn orders backlog of Rs72.8 bn
n Maintain earnings estimates and ‘BUY’ rating with target price of Rs943/Share – do not rule our upgrades in inflows and earnings
Elecon Engineering Q2FY11 Result Update; Strong performance; Retain BUY; Target Price: Rs 121
n EEL performance ahead of estimates – revenue growth 10% yoy to Rs2.8 bn, EBITDA up 8% yoy to Rs400 mn and APAT growth of 32% yoy to Rs142 mn
n Order book declined marginally to Rs15.0 bn – led by lower order inflows at Rs2.1 bn (MHE – Rs0.7 bn and TE – RS1.3 bn)
n Acquired standardized gears & gearboxes business of David Brown Gear System for Rs1.3bn–earnings neutral in near-term
n Trading at attractive valuations of 13.8X FY11E and 10.1X FY12E earnings. Maintain our Buy rating
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