Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details Refining margins up, auto losses rise
Refining margins rise. Refining margins for 1-15 Oct were
US$4.7/barrel, up US$1.1 from previous fortnight. For 2QFY11, the
margins were US$4.2, up from US$3.7 in 1QFY11; for FY11 we
estimate them at US$4, up from FY10 average of US$3.5. Dubai-
Arab heavy spread was US$3.2/barrel, up US$0.3 from previous
fortnight.
Gasoil and gasoline spread up. For 1-15 Oct, the gasoil spread was
US$7.8 a barrel (up US$0.7 from previous fortnight); the gasoline
spread was US$4.5 a barrel (up US$1.7).
Auto-fuel losses rise on appreciating rupee. Based on average
global gasoil and gasoline prices over 1-15 Oct, auto-fuel underrecoveries
for 16-30 Oct are likely to be `3.3/litre versus `2.2/litre
the previous fortnight. Losses were greater on account of higher
crude (up US$5/barrel from previous fortnight), although offset, to
an extent, by an appreciating rupee (1-15 Oct INR/USD average:
44.4, up from 45.5 the previous fortnight).
Auto-fuel breakeven prices to rise. We estimate breakeven crude
prices at US$73.7 a barrel for auto-fuel (previous fortnight: US$72)
and US$33.6/bbl (flat) for cooking fuel. Auto-fuel breakeven would
rise on an appreciating rupee and increase in domestic petrol prices.
Crude price up on positive global cues. For 1-15 Oct, the Brent
crude price was up US$5 a barrel from the previous fortnight, at an
average US$83.5/barrel, on positive global cues. Natural gas prices
continue to see downward pressure and averaged US$3.7/m Btu,
marginally lower than US$4/barrel the previous fortnight.
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