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Sintex Industries Q2FY11E Result Estimates (Results on 11th Oct)
Expect strong yoy growth in quarter mainly led by lower base in Q2FY10 (PAT decline of 18%). Expect revenue growth of 27% in standalone operations and 6% in subsidiaries to result in consolidated revenue growth of 19% YoY. In the standalone business monolithic construction (+50% yoy) and prefabs (+33% yoy) will lead the charge. Expect consolidated EBITDA margins to improve marginally by 30bps yoy and consolidated EBITDA growth of 20% YoY. Expect 37% YoY growth in consolidated APAT (Q2FY10 other income very low at Rs48mn due to Forex loss). Key things to watch - (1) orders and execution in monolithic, (2) performance of subsidiaries especially European, (3) ordering in prefabs ex-BT shelters, 4) update on further acquisition plans 5) forex gain on FCCBs brought in India (though we haven’t factored in numbers but it could be about Rs100mn) & 6) working capital and net debt situation.
Pfizer Q3CY1 Result Update; Downgrade earnings estimates; Maintain Hold; Target Price: Rs 1,100
n Pfizers Q3CY10 performance was disappointing except on sales front with a) Revenue of Rs2.4bn (in-line), b) EBIDTA of Rs523mn (est. Rs557bn) and c) APAT of Rs435mn (est. Rs478mn)
n Lower other income, higher employee cost and one time professional fees impacted operating profitability
n Tweak earnings by 5% each for CY10/11E. Maintain Hold
India Strategy: Q2FY11 Results Preview; Flat growth
Executive Summary
We expect Emkay Universe’s (ex- Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas and Banking) earnings growth to be flat for Q2FY11. This is against the 0.1% growth witnessed in Q1FY11. However if one excludes the results of Reliance Communication and Bharti Airtel, the PAT growth of Emkay Universe in Q2FY11 is expected at 4.6%. (While it was 12.8% in Q1FY11).
Ebitda margins for Emkay Universe are expected to contract by 195 bps to 20.4%. The Same are likely to contract by 190bps to 21%, by 229 bps to 18.2% and by 328 bps to 14.2% for Emkay Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap Universe respectively.
We do not expect any major upgrades during this earnings season.
Emkay Universe is likely to post Sales growth of 19.3% and EBITDA growth of 8.9% for Q2FY11. While PAT growth for Emkay Universe is expected to remain flat for Q2FY11. Emkay Large Cap Universe is likely to show 21.7%, 11.6% and 1.7% growth in Sales, EBITDA and PAT respectively. Emkay Mid Cap Universe is likely to show 7.6%, -4.4% and -12.1% growth in Sales, EBITDA and PAT respectively.
The top performing sectors in terms of sales growth are Automobiles (34.1%), Paper (31.3%), Telecom ( 29.1%), Construction (25%) and Agri Input & Chemicals (22%).
EBITDA margins are likely to improve in sectors like Print Media (270 bps), Power (254 bps), Agri Input & Chemicals (64 bps) and Engineering & Capital Goods (62 bps). The same are likely to contract in case of Cement (1406 bps), Telecom (401 bps), Auto Ancillaries (277 bps), Offshore Oil Field Services (225 bps) and Automobiles (202 bps).
Sectors like Power (29.1%), Agri Input & Chemicals (26.7%), Print Media (25.5%), Paper (22.9%) and Construction (21.8%) are expected to witness better yoy EBITDA growth while sectors like Cement (49%) and Auto Ancillaries (7.4%) are likely to post yoy decline in EBITDA.
Emkay Universe is likely to post a 1.8% growth in other income with 0.4% and 7.5% growth in other income of Emkay Large Cap and Mid Cap Universe respectively.
Emkay Universe is likely to post 12.4% growth in interest cost with 17.8% and 2.2% growth in interest cost of Emkay Large Cap and Midcap respectively. Emkay Small Cap is likely to post de-growth of 15.9% in Interest cost.
PAT growth will be contributed by sectors like Paper (42%), Offshore Oil Field Services (29.5%), Print Media (27.4%), Agri Input & Chemicals (25.8%) and Automobiles (22%). While sectors like Cement (61.7%), Telecom (26.1%) and Auto Ancillaries (19%) will witness de-growth in PAT.
Nifty has given a return of 14.8% over the last quarter and has outperformed against other markets (Nikkei 1.9%, Shanghai 11.9%, Kospi 11.1%, FTSE 11.8%, Dow 10.8% and Nasdaq 12.7%).
Emkay Universe is trading at 17.7x FY11E earnings and 15.2x FY12E earnings which is at a discount of 8% & 5% respectively to consensus Sensex PE.
n Technical Comments
Time for a dip
Nifty ended with moderate losses of 50 odd points on weekly basis, after showing a smart rally for five consecutive weeks. Moreover, today’s negative weekly close and a sell signal trigger on daily MACD, both indicates that a we are in for a small correction upto 5900 level. Also Nifty has broken both 20- and 50- hourly moving averages, which again signals that a short term correction is ready to gulp the exhausted bulls.
BSE IT:
BSE IT index seems to have resumed its uptrend after a 66% correction of the recent rise. Hence in the coming days we may the index scaling new highs. As of now the target is packed at 6300 level.
CMC | IndusInd Bank | Praj Inds. | Sintex Inds. |
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